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UnderUnderUnderUnderOver
Consensus Lost ✗
Smart money consensus was Under — but Over won instead.
Ecuador vs. Costa Rica: 1st Half O/U 0.5
Resolved Over. 75% of the top Polymarket traders held Under. The smart money was wrong.
RESOLVED
💀
Lost
Consensus Traders
4
Under 75%
1 arb excluded
Total Value
$219.21
Combined PnL
-$77.1
Smart Money Signal
Under
3 of 4 top traders (75%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed3 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Market Activity
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Outcome Probabilities
Over100%
Under0%
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Under3 traders
Total Value$0
Total Shares265
Combined PnL-$78.5
Over1 trader
Total Value$5
Total Shares5
Combined PnL+$1.4
Under — 75%Over — 25%
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
FL FlaznorpARB<$100 | Underavg 26.8¢ | $360.58 | $214.21 | -$146.37 | 50% 3544-3611 (7155) |
| └ Under leg | Underavg 26.8¢ | $213.06 | — | -$213.06 | |
| └ Over leg | Overavg 68.9¢ | $147.51 | $214.21 | +$66.7 | |
MA MadridTimeCTR<$100 | Underavg 30¢ | $67.2 | — | -$67.2 | 37% 926-1560 (2486) |
LI LightParadoxCTR<$100 | Underavg 28¢ | $6.21 | — | -$6.21 | 36% 911-1587 (2498) |
LI LimousinCTR<$100 | Underavg 27¢ | $5.09 | — | -$5.09 | 36% 883-1569 (2452) |
LE LeLynxMalynx<$100 | Overavg 72¢ | $3.6 | $5 | +$1.4 | 56% 426-340 (766) |
FL
FlaznorpARB<$100Invested
$360.58
Value
$214.21
PnL
-$146.37
Record
50%
3544-3611 (7155)
Both legs:
Under$213.0626.8¢-$213.06
Over$147.5168.9¢+$66.7
MA
MadridTimeCTR<$100Invested
$67.2
Value
—
PnL
-$67.2
Record
37%
926-1560 (2486)
LI
LightParadoxCTR<$100Invested
$6.21
Value
—
PnL
-$6.21
Record
36%
911-1587 (2498)
LI
LimousinCTR<$100Invested
$5.09
Value
—
PnL
-$5.09
Record
36%
883-1569 (2452)
LE
LeLynxMalynx<$100Invested
$3.6
Value
$5
PnL
+$1.4
Record
56%
426-340 (766)
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Market Info
Condition ID
0x87e84922...31baf3
Slug
fif-ecu-cri-2026-11-13-first-half-total-0pt5