Will Ecuador win on 2026-11-13?

3 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (38%) · Yes at 77¢ · $369 held · ends Nov 14

Yes77¢No23¢Ends Sat, Nov 14, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 38%

Total Value

$369.33

Combined PnL

-$17.84

Smart Money Entry

77¢ → 77¢

+0% since entry · 3 traders

Research grade

NeutralYes at 77%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

3 of 8 top traders (38%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes77%

No23%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes3 traders

Total Value$341.94

Total Shares410

Combined PnL-$6.91

No5 traders

Total Value$27.39

Total Shares124

Combined PnL-$10.93

Yes — 38%No — 62%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Cooling

-5 pts consensus

Breadth

3 traders

Top 2 hold 99%

Freshness

Mature

14h old

Flip Quality

Watch

1 consensus flip

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

38% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 99% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrNo 67% · 3

Diverging

Hand-pickedNo 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000No 57% · 7

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
FL Flaznorp	Yesavg 74.8¢	$287.07	$287.54	+$0.47	51% 2634-2567 (5201)
TH thatsabing0<$100	Yesavg 89.9¢	$59.03	$50.55	-$8.48	66% 142-74 (216)
LE LeLynxMalynxCTR<$100	Noavg 25¢	$19.5	$17.16	-$2.34	54% 211-181 (392)
0X 0x6b25c5c4d1e681d2203297803793ad8c732b7a69CTR<$100	Noavg 49¢	$13.23	$5.94	-$7.29	54% 94-79 (173)
BL BlackMamba08<$100	Yesavg 55¢	$2.75	$3.85	+$1.1	— 6-7 (13)
SE sentrioCTR<$100	Noavg 28¢	$4.53	$3.56	-$0.97	41% 589-849 (1438)
FE ferdinand2CTR<$100	Noavg 29¢	$5.78	$0.44	-$0.34	49% 1307-1343 (2650)
VeryLucky888CTR<$100	Noavg 22¢	$0.28	$0.29	+$0.01	52% 813-742 (1555)

Flaznorp

Yes

Invested

$287.07

Value

$287.54

PnL

+$0.47

Record

51%

2634-2567 (5201)

thatsabing0<$100

Yes

Invested

$59.03

Value

$50.55

PnL

-$8.48

Record

66%

142-74 (216)

LeLynxMalynxCTR<$100

Invested

$19.5

Value

$17.16

PnL

-$2.34

Record

54%

211-181 (392)

0x6b25c5c4d1e681d2203297803793ad8c732b7a69CTR<$100

Invested

$13.23

Value

$5.94

PnL

-$7.29

Record

54%

94-79 (173)

BlackMamba08<$100

Yes

Invested

$2.75

Value

$3.85

PnL

+$1.1

Record

—

6-7 (13)

sentrioCTR<$100

Invested

$4.53

Value

$3.56

PnL

-$0.97

Record

41%

589-849 (1438)

ferdinand2CTR<$100

Invested

$5.78

Value

$0.44

PnL

-$0.34

Record

49%

1307-1343 (2650)

VeryLucky888CTR<$100

Invested

$0.28

Value

$0.29

PnL

+$0.01

Record

52%

813-742 (1555)

Research grade

NeutralYes at 77%

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

3 of 8 top traders (38%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Cooling

-5 pts consensus

Breadth

3 traders

Top 2 hold 99%

Freshness

Mature

14h old

Flip Quality

Watch

1 consensus flip

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

38% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 99% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrNo 67% · 3

Diverging

Hand-pickedNo 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000No 57% · 7

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance78.9%

77.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.9¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$26.81

Max Loss

-$100.00

126.8

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.