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UnderUnderUnderOverOverUnder
Consensus Lost ✗
Smart money consensus was Under — but Over won instead.
Colombia vs. Chile: 1st Half O/U 0.5
Resolved Over. 60% of the top Polymarket traders held Under. The smart money was wrong.
RESOLVED
💀
Lost
Consensus Traders
5
Under 60%
1 arb excluded
Total Value
$134.97
Combined PnL
-$18.75
Smart Money Signal
Under
3 of 5 top traders (60%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed3 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Market Activity
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Outcome Probabilities
Over100%
Under0%
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Under3 traders
Total Value$0
Total Shares68
Combined PnL-$23.63
Over2 traders
Total Value$22.47
Total Shares22
Combined PnL+$4.88
Under — 60%Over — 40%
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
FL FlaznorpARB<$100 | Underavg 48.1¢ | $190.01 | $112.5 | -$77.51 | 50% 3544-3611 (7155) |
| └ Under leg | Underavg 48.1¢ | $144.55 | — | -$144.55 | |
| └ Over leg | Overavg 40.4¢ | $45.46 | $112.5 | +$67.04 | |
MA MadridTimeCTR<$100 | Underavg 35.3¢ | $13.68 | — | -$13.68 | 37% 926-1560 (2486) |
LI LimousinCTR<$100 | Underavg 33¢ | $8.81 | — | -$8.81 | 36% 883-1569 (2452) |
TO topdogbigboi<$100 | Overavg 92¢ | $15.94 | $17.33 | +$1.39 | 37% 841-1416 (2257) |
VA Vampiro1<$100 | Overavg 32¢ | $1.64 | $5.14 | +$3.5 | 83% 183-37 (220) |
FE ferdinand2CTR<$100 | Underavg 51¢ | $1.14 | — | -$1.14 | 49% 1883-1987 (3870) |
FL
FlaznorpARB<$100Invested
$190.01
Value
$112.5
PnL
-$77.51
Record
50%
3544-3611 (7155)
Both legs:
Under$144.5548.1¢-$144.55
Over$45.4640.4¢+$67.04
MA
MadridTimeCTR<$100Invested
$13.68
Value
—
PnL
-$13.68
Record
37%
926-1560 (2486)
LI
LimousinCTR<$100Invested
$8.81
Value
—
PnL
-$8.81
Record
36%
883-1569 (2452)
TO
topdogbigboi<$100Invested
$15.94
Value
$17.33
PnL
+$1.39
Record
37%
841-1416 (2257)
VA
Vampiro1<$100Invested
$1.64
Value
$5.14
PnL
+$3.5
Record
83%
183-37 (220)
FE
ferdinand2CTR<$100Invested
$1.14
Value
—
PnL
-$1.14
Record
49%
1883-1987 (3870)
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Market Info
Condition ID
0x9a70cbec...d576ce
Slug
fif-col-chl-2026-11-13-first-half-total-0pt5