Will Colombia win on 2026-11-13?

3 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (43%) · Yes at 68¢ · $201 held · ends Nov 14

Yes68¢No32¢Ends Sat, Nov 14, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 43%

Total Value

$200.88

Combined PnL

-$9.69

Smart Money Entry

67.5¢ → 67.5¢

+0% since entry · 3 traders

Research grade

NeutralYes at 68%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

3 of 7 top traders (43%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes68%

No33%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes3 traders

Total Value$179.42

Total Shares241

Combined PnL+$0.03

No4 traders

Total Value$21.47

Total Shares67

Combined PnL-$9.72

Yes — 43%No — 57%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

3 traders

Top 2 hold 98%

Freshness

Fresh

3h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

50% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 98% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrNo 67% · 3

Diverging

Top 1000Yes 50% · 6

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
FL Flaznorp	Yesavg 67.9¢	$169.44	$168.68	-$0.76	51% 2328-2218 (4546)
0X 0x6b25c5c4d1e681d2203297803793ad8c732b7a69CTR<$100	Noavg 49.1¢	$20.63	$9.28	-$4.46	58% 80-59 (139)
SH shiifooCTR<$100	Noavg 50.9¢	$14.24	$8.96	-$5.28	62% 1351-818 (2169)
TH thatsabing0<$100	Yesavg 69¢	$7.45	$7.34	-$0.11	66% 129-67 (196)
BL BlackMamba08<$100	Yesavg 50¢	$2.5	$3.4	+$0.9	— 5-3 (8)
FE ferdinand2CTR<$100	Noavg 33¢	$1.65	$1.63	-$0.02	50% 1105-1107 (2212)
SE sentrioCTR<$100	Noavg 31¢	$1.55	$1.6	+$0.05	41% 490-712 (1202)

Flaznorp

Yes

Invested

$169.44

Value

$168.68

PnL

-$0.76

Record

51%

2328-2218 (4546)

0x6b25c5c4d1e681d2203297803793ad8c732b7a69CTR<$100

Invested

$20.63

Value

$9.28

PnL

-$4.46

Record

58%

80-59 (139)

shiifooCTR<$100

Invested

$14.24

Value

$8.96

PnL

-$5.28

Record

62%

1351-818 (2169)

thatsabing0<$100

Yes

Invested

$7.45

Value

$7.34

PnL

-$0.11

Record

66%

129-67 (196)

BlackMamba08<$100

Yes

Invested

$2.5

Value

$3.4

PnL

+$0.9

Record

—

5-3 (8)

ferdinand2CTR<$100

Invested

$1.65

Value

$1.63

PnL

-$0.02

Record

50%

1105-1107 (2212)

sentrioCTR<$100

Invested

$1.55

Value

$1.6

PnL

+$0.05

Record

41%

490-712 (1202)

Research grade

NeutralYes at 68%

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

3 of 7 top traders (43%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

3 traders

Top 2 hold 98%

Freshness

Fresh

3h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

50% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 98% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrNo 67% · 3

Diverging

Top 1000Yes 50% · 6

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance69.6%

67.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$43.72

Max Loss

-$100.00

143.7

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.