Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Over, while the market favors Under (76%). 12 of 16 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

China PR vs. Malaysia: O/U 4.5

12 of 16 top Polymarket traders hold Over (75%) · Over at 24¢ · $613 held · ended Nov 14

Over24¢Under76¢Ended Sat, Nov 14, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Over

Consensus Traders

Over 75%

Total Value

$612.7

Combined PnL

$37.88

Smart Money Entry

27.2¢ → 24¢

-12% since entry · 12 traders

Research grade

AvoidOver at 24%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Over

12 of 16 top traders (75%)Underdog side (market favors Under 76%)12 hold an outcome priced under 50%15 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Over24%

Under76%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Over12 traders

Total Value$471.63

Total Shares1,555

Combined PnL+$35.46

Under4 traders

Total Value$141.07

Total Shares183

Combined PnL+$2.42

Over — 75%Under — 25%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 90%

Freshness

Fresh

6h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

83% of non-arb traders are on Over. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 90% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrOver 100% · 4

Aligned

Top 1000Over 83% · 6

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
SN SnakeBallCTR	Overavg 34.3¢	$272.97	$298.44	+$25.47	47% 895-991 (1886)
FL FlaznorpCTR<$100	Overavg 16¢	$74.08	$78.71	+$4.63	49% 3801-3964 (7765)
SU suitcase6628<$100	Underavg 63¢	$67.64	$66.15	-$1.49	64% 616-342 (958)
poshposh<$100	Underavg 66.8¢	$34.36	$36.75	+$2.39	48% 1092-1167 (2259)
dips.CTR<$100	Overavg 41.9¢	$36.91	$34.71	-$2.2	47% 963-1084 (2047)
LE LeLynxMalynx<$100	Underavg 82.6¢	$33.3	$34.47	+$1.17	56% 460-366 (826)
SE sentrioCTR<$100	Overavg 16¢	$16.67	$17.71	+$1.04	42% 989-1357 (2346)
LI LightParadoxCTR<$100	Overavg 17¢	$5.27	$11.78	+$6.51	37% 956-1658 (2614)
SH shiifooCTR<$100	Overavg 39¢	$11.58	$11.43	-$0.15	61% 1421-900 (2321)
SM smithagentCTR<$100	Overavg 39¢	$5.72	$5.65	-$0.07	45% 651-805 (1456)
US User7429CTR<$100	Overavg 39¢	$4.4	$4.34	-$0.06	40% 327-489 (816)
LR lryyy<$100	Underavg 67¢	$3.35	$3.7	+$0.35	45% 795-974 (1769)
VE VenusianCTR<$100	Overavg 18¢	$3.51	$3.32	-$0.19	36% 944-1666 (2610)
RO Rocky31CTR<$100	Overavg 15¢	$2.26	$2.57	+$0.3	42% 100-138 (238)
SU suntoriCTR<$100	Overavg 16¢	$2.33	$2.48	+$0.15	46% 2583-3072 (5655)
CI cigarettesCTR<$100	Overavg 34.8¢	$0.46	$0.5	+$0.04	53% 7043-6178 (13221)

SnakeBallCTR

Over

Invested

$272.97

Value

$298.44

PnL

+$25.47

Record

47%

895-991 (1886)

FlaznorpCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$74.08

Value

$78.71

PnL

+$4.63

Record

49%

3801-3964 (7765)

suitcase6628<$100

Under

Invested

$67.64

Value

$66.15

PnL

-$1.49

Record

64%

616-342 (958)

poshposh<$100

Under

Invested

$34.36

Value

$36.75

PnL

+$2.39

Record

48%

1092-1167 (2259)

dips.CTR<$100

Over

Invested

$36.91

Value

$34.71

PnL

-$2.2

Record

47%

963-1084 (2047)

LeLynxMalynx<$100

Under

Invested

$33.3

Value

$34.47

PnL

+$1.17

Record

56%

460-366 (826)

sentrioCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$16.67

Value

$17.71

PnL

+$1.04

Record

42%

989-1357 (2346)

LightParadoxCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$5.27

Value

$11.78

PnL

+$6.51

Record

37%

956-1658 (2614)

shiifooCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$11.58

Value

$11.43

PnL

-$0.15

Record

61%

1421-900 (2321)

smithagentCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$5.72

Value

$5.65

PnL

-$0.07

Record

45%

651-805 (1456)

User7429CTR<$100

Over

Invested

$4.4

Value

$4.34

PnL

-$0.06

Record

40%

327-489 (816)

lryyy<$100

Under

Invested

$3.35

Value

$3.7

PnL

+$0.35

Record

45%

795-974 (1769)

VenusianCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$3.51

Value

$3.32

PnL

-$0.19

Record

36%

944-1666 (2610)

Rocky31CTR<$100

Over

Invested

$2.26

Value

$2.57

PnL

+$0.3

Record

42%

100-138 (238)

suntoriCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$2.33

Value

$2.48

PnL

+$0.15

Record

46%

2583-3072 (5655)

cigarettesCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$0.46

Value

$0.5

PnL

+$0.04

Record

53%

7043-6178 (13221)

Research grade

AvoidOver at 24%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.

Smart Money Signal

Over

12 of 16 top traders (75%)Underdog side (market favors Under 76%)12 hold an outcome priced under 50%15 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 90%

Freshness

Fresh

6h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

83% of non-arb traders are on Over. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 90% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrOver 100% · 4

Aligned

Top 1000Over 83% · 6

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Over wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance25.9%

24.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.9¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$285.54

Max Loss

-$100.00

385.5

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.