Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Over, while the market favors Under (51%). 14 of 17 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

China PR vs. Malaysia: O/U 3.5

14 of 17 top Polymarket traders hold Over (82%) · Over at 50¢ · $2K held · ended Nov 14

Over50¢Under50¢Ended Sat, Nov 14, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Over

Consensus Traders

Over 82%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$2.0K

Combined PnL

-$227.16

Smart Money Entry

58.1¢ → 49.5¢

-15% since entry · 14 traders

Research grade

NeutralOver at 50%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Over

14 of 17 top traders (82%)Underdog side (market favors Under 51%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed14 hold an outcome priced under 50%12 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

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Outcome Probabilities

Over50%

Under51%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Over14 traders

Total Value$839.42

Total Shares1,544

Combined PnL-$187.38

Under3 traders

Total Value$104.57

Total Shares169

Combined PnL-$39.78

Over — 82%Under — 18%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
SN SnakeBallARB<$100	Underavg 32.2¢	$775.66	$1.1K	+$274.77	47% 895-991 (1886)
└ Under leg	Underavg 32.2¢	$550.93	$727.39	+$176.46
└ Over leg	Overavg 40¢	$224.73	$323.04	+$98.32
dips.CTR	Overavg 67.6¢	$495.41	$160.59	-$124.43	47% 963-1084 (2047)
SM smithagentCTR	Overavg 68.1¢	$268.2	$146.96	-$66.6	45% 651-805 (1456)
LU LuckyLooCTR	Overavg 42.9¢	$70.47	$109.34	+$38.87	35% 437-797 (1234)
poshposhCTR<$100	Overavg 57.1¢	$94.94	$97.49	+$2.56	48% 1092-1167 (2259)
SU suitcase6628CTR	Overavg 68.2¢	$196.69	$94.94	-$50.01	64% 616-342 (958)
SU suntori	Underavg 74.1¢	$132.85	$88.18	-$39.98	46% 2583-3072 (5655)
CI cigarettesCTR<$100	Overavg 52.5¢	$52.5	$63	+$10.5	53% 7043-6178 (13221)
LR lryyyCTR<$100	Overavg 52.8¢	$43.76	$47.51	+$3.76	45% 795-974 (1769)
US User7429CTR<$100	Overavg 65¢	$35.33	$33.45	-$1.88	40% 327-489 (816)
AR ARocky33CTR<$100	Overavg 47¢	$35	$30.53	-$4.47	78% 785-220 (1005)
FL FlaznorpCTR<$100	Overavg 30¢	$25.15	$25.56	+$0.41	49% 3801-3964 (7765)
VE VenusianCTR<$100	Overavg 32¢	$14.24	$19.18	+$4.94	36% 944-1666 (2610)
FO Forecastication2<$100	Underavg 68¢	$8.84	$8.71	-$0.13	45% 260-317 (577)
LE LeLynxMalynx<$100	Underavg 66.5¢	$7.35	$7.68	+$0.33	56% 460-366 (826)
LI LimousinCTR<$100	Overavg 32.9¢	$7.99	$7.28	-$0.71	36% 926-1642 (2568)
MA MadridTimeCTR<$100	Overavg 33¢	$2.31	$2.1	-$0.21	37% 965-1630 (2595)
SE sentrioCTR<$100	Overavg 32¢	$1.6	$1.5	-$0.1	42% 989-1357 (2346)

SnakeBallARB<$100

Under

Invested

$775.66

Value

$1.1K

PnL

+$274.77

Record

47%

895-991 (1886)

Both legs:

Under$550.9332.2¢+$176.46

Over$224.7340¢+$98.32

dips.CTR

Over

Invested

$495.41

Value

$160.59

PnL

-$124.43

Record

47%

963-1084 (2047)

smithagentCTR

Over

Invested

$268.2

Value

$146.96

PnL

-$66.6

Record

45%

651-805 (1456)

LuckyLooCTR

Over

Invested

$70.47

Value

$109.34

PnL

+$38.87

Record

35%

437-797 (1234)

poshposhCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$94.94

Value

$97.49

PnL

+$2.56

Record

48%

1092-1167 (2259)

suitcase6628CTR

Over

Invested

$196.69

Value

$94.94

PnL

-$50.01

Record

64%

616-342 (958)

suntori

Under

Invested

$132.85

Value

$88.18

PnL

-$39.98

Record

46%

2583-3072 (5655)

cigarettesCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$52.5

Value

$63

PnL

+$10.5

Record

53%

7043-6178 (13221)

lryyyCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$43.76

Value

$47.51

PnL

+$3.76

Record

45%

795-974 (1769)

User7429CTR<$100

Over

Invested

$35.33

Value

$33.45

PnL

-$1.88

Record

40%

327-489 (816)

ARocky33CTR<$100

Over

Invested

$35

Value

$30.53

PnL

-$4.47

Record

78%

785-220 (1005)

FlaznorpCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$25.15

Value

$25.56

PnL

+$0.41

Record

49%

3801-3964 (7765)

VenusianCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$14.24

Value

$19.18

PnL

+$4.94

Record

36%

944-1666 (2610)

Forecastication2<$100

Under

Invested

$8.84

Value

$8.71

PnL

-$0.13

Record

45%

260-317 (577)

LeLynxMalynx<$100

Under

Invested

$7.35

Value

$7.68

PnL

+$0.33

Record

56%

460-366 (826)

LimousinCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$7.99

Value

$7.28

PnL

-$0.71

Record

36%

926-1642 (2568)

MadridTimeCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$2.31

Value

$2.1

PnL

-$0.21

Record

37%

965-1630 (2595)

sentrioCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$1.6

Value

$1.5

PnL

-$0.1

Record

42%

989-1357 (2346)

Research grade

NeutralOver at 50%

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

Smart Money Signal

Over

14 of 17 top traders (82%)Underdog side (market favors Under 51%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed14 hold an outcome priced under 50%12 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Over wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance51.7%

49.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$93.24

Max Loss

-$100.00

193.2

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.