Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Under, while the market favors Over (82%). 8 of 16 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

China PR vs. Malaysia: O/U 2.5

8 of 16 top Polymarket traders hold Under (50%) · Under at 19¢ · $2K held · ended Nov 14

Over82¢Under18¢Ended Sat, Nov 14, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Under

Consensus Traders

Under 50%

Total Value

$2.4K

Combined PnL

-$5.47

Smart Money Entry

38.7¢ → 18.5¢

-52% since entry · 8 traders

Research grade

AvoidUnder at 19%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Under

8 of 16 top traders (50%)Underdog side (market favors Over 82%)8 hold an outcome priced under 50%12 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Over82%

Under19%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Under8 traders

Total Value$1.5K

Total Shares4,203

Combined PnL-$107.06

Over8 traders

Total Value$829.1

Total Shares1,022

Combined PnL+$101.59

Under — 50%Over — 50%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
FL FlaznorpCTR	Underavg 46.8¢	$1.2K	$1.3K	+$31.09	49% 3801-3964 (7765)
SU suntori	Overavg 53.7¢	$464.15	$526.55	+$77.28	46% 2583-3072 (5655)
dips.	Overavg 75.4¢	$138.08	$157.43	+$19.36	47% 963-1084 (2047)
SN SnakeBallCTR	Underavg 21.8¢	$259.21	$112.73	-$146.47	47% 895-991 (1886)
SE sentrioCTR<$100	Underavg 45¢	$70.87	$79.54	+$8.66	42% 989-1357 (2346)
LE LeLynxMalynxCTR<$100	Underavg 47¢	$47	$48	+$1	56% 460-366 (826)
SU suitcase6628<$100	Overavg 82.2¢	$41.1	$43	+$1.9	64% 616-342 (958)
SM smithagent<$100	Overavg 81.1¢	$35.71	$37.89	+$2.18	45% 651-805 (1456)
US User7429<$100	Overavg 83.1¢	$29.2	$30.22	+$1.02	40% 327-489 (816)
poshposh<$100	Overavg 84¢	$18.64	$19.19	+$0.55	48% 1092-1167 (2259)
NO NotJumpCTR<$100	Underavg 9.7¢	$9.74	$8.5	-$1.24	52% 810-741 (1551)
SH shiifoo<$100	Overavg 90¢	$9.14	$8.33	-$0.81	61% 1421-900 (2321)
CI cigarettes<$100	Overavg 86¢	$6.38	$6.49	+$0.11	53% 7043-6178 (13221)
LI LimousinCTR<$100	Underavg 48.5¢	$4.93	$4.78	-$0.15	36% 926-1642 (2568)
FE ferdinand2CTR<$100	Underavg 48¢	$2.4	$2.4	+$0	48% 2063-2220 (4283)
LU LuckyLooCTR<$100	Underavg 8¢	$0.8	$0.85	+$0.05	35% 437-797 (1234)

FlaznorpCTR

Under

Invested

$1,236.83

Value

$1.3K

PnL

+$31.09

Record

49%

3801-3964 (7765)

suntori

Over

Invested

$464.15

Value

$526.55

PnL

+$77.28

Record

46%

2583-3072 (5655)

dips.

Over

Invested

$138.08

Value

$157.43

PnL

+$19.36

Record

47%

963-1084 (2047)

SnakeBallCTR

Under

Invested

$259.21

Value

$112.73

PnL

-$146.47

Record

47%

895-991 (1886)

sentrioCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$70.87

Value

$79.54

PnL

+$8.66

Record

42%

989-1357 (2346)

LeLynxMalynxCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$47

Value

$48

PnL

+$1

Record

56%

460-366 (826)

suitcase6628<$100

Over

Invested

$41.1

Value

$43

PnL

+$1.9

Record

64%

616-342 (958)

smithagent<$100

Over

Invested

$35.71

Value

$37.89

PnL

+$2.18

Record

45%

651-805 (1456)

User7429<$100

Over

Invested

$29.2

Value

$30.22

PnL

+$1.02

Record

40%

327-489 (816)

poshposh<$100

Over

Invested

$18.64

Value

$19.19

PnL

+$0.55

Record

48%

1092-1167 (2259)

NotJumpCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$9.74

Value

$8.5

PnL

-$1.24

Record

52%

810-741 (1551)

shiifoo<$100

Over

Invested

$9.14

Value

$8.33

PnL

-$0.81

Record

61%

1421-900 (2321)

cigarettes<$100

Over

Invested

$6.38

Value

$6.49

PnL

+$0.11

Record

53%

7043-6178 (13221)

LimousinCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$4.93

Value

$4.78

PnL

-$0.15

Record

36%

926-1642 (2568)

ferdinand2CTR<$100

Under

Invested

$2.4

Value

$2.4

PnL

+$0

Record

48%

2063-2220 (4283)

LuckyLooCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$0.8

Value

$0.85

PnL

+$0.05

Record

35%

437-797 (1234)

Research grade

AvoidUnder at 19%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

Under

8 of 16 top traders (50%)Underdog side (market favors Over 82%)8 hold an outcome priced under 50%12 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

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EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Under wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance20.3%

18.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.8¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$392.98

Max Loss

-$100.00

493.0

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.