China PR vs. Malaysia: O/U 1.5
2 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold Over (40%) · Over at 78¢ · $2K held · ends Nov 14
⚖️
Neutral
Over
5
Over 40%
$2.4K
$511.69
79.8¢ → 77.5¢
-3% since entry · 2 traders
Research grade
NeutralOver at 78%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
2 of 5 top traders (40%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
FL FlaznorpCTR | Underavg 20.3¢ | $568.96 | $1.4K | +$831.81 | 49% 3800-3964 (7764) |
ZZ Zzzz87 | Overavg 79.9¢ | $1.0K | $649.99 | -$388.9 | 61% 87-55 (142) |
SE sentrioCTR | Underavg 20.5¢ | $86.49 | $211.3 | +$124.8 | 42% 988-1357 (2345) |
SU suntori | Overavg 79¢ | $156.43 | $99.01 | -$57.42 | 46% 2570-3056 (5626) |
MA MadridTimeCTR<$100 | Underavg 22¢ | $1.1 | $2.5 | +$1.4 | 37% 965-1630 (2595) |
Invested
$568.96
Value
$1.4K
PnL
+$831.81
Record
49%
3800-3964 (7764)
Invested
$1,038.88
Value
$649.99
PnL
-$388.9
Record
61%
87-55 (142)
Invested
$86.49
Value
$211.3
PnL
+$124.8
Record
42%
988-1357 (2345)
Invested
$156.43
Value
$99.01
PnL
-$57.42
Record
46%
2570-3056 (5626)
Invested
$1.1
Value
$2.5
PnL
+$1.4
Record
37%
965-1630 (2595)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
77.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.8¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.