Spread: China PR (-2.5)

6 of 10 top Polymarket traders hold Malaysia (60%) · Malaysia at 53¢ · $2K held · ended Nov 14

China PR48¢Malaysia52¢Ended Sat, Nov 14, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Malaysia

Consensus Traders

Malaysia 60%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$1.6K

Combined PnL

-$108.7

Smart Money Entry

79.5¢ → 52.5¢

-34% since entry · 6 traders

Research grade

NeutralMalaysia at 53%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Malaysia

6 of 10 top traders (60%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed4 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

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Outcome Probabilities

China PR48%

Malaysia53%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Malaysia6 traders

Total Value$968.08

Total Shares1,306

Combined PnL-$74.66

China PR4 traders

Total Value$351.56

Total Shares1,675

Combined PnL-$34.04

Malaysia — 60%China PR — 40%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

2 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

40% of non-arb traders are on Malaysia. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrMalaysia 50% · 4

Aligned

Top 1000China PR 60% · 5

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
SU suntori	Malaysiaavg 84¢	$957.18	$876.74	-$80.44	46% 2583-3072 (5655)
SN SnakeBallARB<$100	Malaysiaavg 44¢	$199.99	$250.32	+$50.32	47% 895-991 (1886)
└ Malaysia leg	Malaysiaavg 44¢	$169.65	$167.65	-$2
└ China PR leg	China PRavg 20.7¢	$30.35	$82.67	+$52.32
FL FlaznorpCTR	China PRavg 16¢	$205.67	$192.82	-$12.85	49% 3801-3964 (7765)
dips.CTR	China PRavg 56.6¢	$130.23	$109.25	-$20.98	47% 963-1084 (2047)
VE Venusian<$100	Malaysiaavg 49¢	$37.07	$39.7	+$2.63	36% 944-1666 (2610)
poshposhCTR<$100	China PRavg 52.9¢	$34.58	$35.31	+$0.74	48% 1092-1167 (2259)
LU LuckyLoo<$100	Malaysiaavg 43.5¢	$16.97	$18.33	+$1.36	35% 437-797 (1234)
MA MadridTime<$100	Malaysiaavg 45.8¢	$13.2	$15.27	+$2.07	37% 965-1630 (2595)
SE sentrioCTR<$100	China PRavg 16¢	$15.13	$14.18	-$0.95	42% 989-1357 (2346)
FO forecastication4<$100	Malaysiaavg 76.5¢	$12.06	$12.14	+$0.08	33% 168-335 (503)
LI Limousin<$100	Malaysiaavg 48.7¢	$6.26	$5.91	-$0.35	36% 926-1642 (2568)

suntori

Malaysia

Invested

$957.18

Value

$876.74

PnL

-$80.44

Record

46%

2583-3072 (5655)

SnakeBallARB<$100

Malaysia

Invested

$199.99

Value

$250.32

PnL

+$50.32

Record

47%

895-991 (1886)

Both legs:

Malaysia$169.6544¢-$2

China PR$30.3520.7¢+$52.32

FlaznorpCTR

China PR

Invested

$205.67

Value

$192.82

PnL

-$12.85

Record

49%

3801-3964 (7765)

dips.CTR

China PR

Invested

$130.23

Value

$109.25

PnL

-$20.98

Record

47%

963-1084 (2047)

Venusian<$100

Malaysia

Invested

$37.07

Value

$39.7

PnL

+$2.63

Record

36%

944-1666 (2610)

poshposhCTR<$100

China PR

Invested

$34.58

Value

$35.31

PnL

+$0.74

Record

48%

1092-1167 (2259)

LuckyLoo<$100

Malaysia

Invested

$16.97

Value

$18.33

PnL

+$1.36

Record

35%

437-797 (1234)

MadridTime<$100

Malaysia

Invested

$13.2

Value

$15.27

PnL

+$2.07

Record

37%

965-1630 (2595)

sentrioCTR<$100

China PR

Invested

$15.13

Value

$14.18

PnL

-$0.95

Record

42%

989-1357 (2346)

forecastication4<$100

Malaysia

Invested

$12.06

Value

$12.14

PnL

+$0.08

Record

33%

168-335 (503)

Limousin<$100

Malaysia

Invested

$6.26

Value

$5.91

PnL

-$0.35

Record

36%

926-1642 (2568)

Research grade

NeutralMalaysia at 53%

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

Smart Money Signal

Malaysia

6 of 10 top traders (60%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed4 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

2 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

40% of non-arb traders are on Malaysia. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrMalaysia 50% · 4

Aligned

Top 1000China PR 60% · 5

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Malaysia wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance54.7%

52.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$82.67

Max Loss

-$100.00

182.7

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.