Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold China PR, while the market favors Malaysia (61%). 6 of 9 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Spread: China PR (-1.5)

6 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold China PR (67%) · China PR at 40¢ · $614 held · ends Nov 14

China PR40¢Malaysia60¢Ends Sat, Nov 14, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

China PR

Consensus Traders

China PR 67%

Total Value

$613.57

Combined PnL

-$3.26

Smart Money Entry

38.5¢ → 39.5¢

+3% since entry · 6 traders

Research grade

NeutralChina PR at 40%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

China PR

6 of 9 top traders (67%)Underdog side (market favors Malaysia 61%)6 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

China PR40%

Malaysia61%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

China PR6 traders

Total Value$509.21

Total Shares1,340

Combined PnL-$6.31

Malaysia3 traders

Total Value$104.36

Total Shares168

Combined PnL+$3.05

China PR — 67%Malaysia — 33%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

-8 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 88%

Freshness

Fresh

3h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

63% of non-arb traders are on China PR. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 88% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (1 on Malaysia) and the top 1000 (7 on China PR) disagree here.

ctrChina PR 57% · 7

Aligned

Hand-pickedMalaysia 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000China PR 71% · 7

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
FL FlaznorpCTR	China PRavg 39¢	$240.59	$234.41	-$6.18	49% 3740-3887 (7627)
DA darkumbreon88CTR	China PRavg 37¢	$172.54	$177.2	+$4.66	61% 1035-652 (1687)
LE LeLynxMalynx<$100	Malaysiaavg 60.9¢	$78.54	$79.34	+$0.79	56% 444-355 (799)
SE sentrioCTR<$100	China PRavg 39¢	$54.28	$52.89	-$1.39	42% 970-1328 (2298)
VE VenusianCTR<$100	China PRavg 42¢	$32.19	$29.11	-$3.08	36% 937-1660 (2597)
DV dv-pm<$100	Malaysiaavg 59¢	$15.02	$15.52	+$0.51	42% 27-38 (65)
SU suntoriCTR<$100	China PRavg 38¢	$9.52	$9.52	+$0	46% 2495-2986 (5481)
VeryLucky888<$100	Malaysiaavg 57.9¢	$40.08	$9.5	+$1.74	53% 1298-1131 (2429)
FO Forecastication2CTR<$100	China PRavg 40¢	$6.4	$6.08	-$0.32	45% 256-310 (566)

FlaznorpCTR

China PR

Invested

$240.59

Value

$234.41

PnL

-$6.18

Record

49%

3740-3887 (7627)

darkumbreon88CTR

China PR

Invested

$172.54

Value

$177.2

PnL

+$4.66

Record

61%

1035-652 (1687)

LeLynxMalynx<$100

Malaysia

Invested

$78.54

Value

$79.34

PnL

+$0.79

Record

56%

444-355 (799)

sentrioCTR<$100

China PR

Invested

$54.28

Value

$52.89

PnL

-$1.39

Record

42%

970-1328 (2298)

VenusianCTR<$100

China PR

Invested

$32.19

Value

$29.11

PnL

-$3.08

Record

36%

937-1660 (2597)

dv-pm<$100

Malaysia

Invested

$15.02

Value

$15.52

PnL

+$0.51

Record

42%

27-38 (65)

suntoriCTR<$100

China PR

Invested

$9.52

Value

$9.52

PnL

+$0

Record

46%

2495-2986 (5481)

VeryLucky888<$100

Malaysia

Invested

$40.08

Value

$9.5

PnL

+$1.74

Record

53%

1298-1131 (2429)

Forecastication2CTR<$100

China PR

Invested

$6.4

Value

$6.08

PnL

-$0.32

Record

45%

256-310 (566)

Research grade

NeutralChina PR at 40%

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

Smart Money Signal

China PR

6 of 9 top traders (67%)Underdog side (market favors Malaysia 61%)6 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

-8 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 88%

Freshness

Fresh

3h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

63% of non-arb traders are on China PR. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 88% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (1 on Malaysia) and the top 1000 (7 on China PR) disagree here.

ctrChina PR 57% · 7

Aligned

Hand-pickedMalaysia 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000China PR 71% · 7

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that China PR wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance41.7%

39.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$139.78

Max Loss

-$100.00

239.8

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.