China PR leading at halftime?

6 of 11 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (55%) · Yes at 100¢ · $1K held · ended Nov 14

Yes>99¢No<1¢Ended Sat, Nov 14, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 55%

Total Value

$1.2K

Combined PnL

-$147.28

Smart Money Entry

49.7¢ → 100¢

+101% since entry · 6 traders

Research grade

NeutralYes at 100%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

6 of 11 top traders (55%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes100%

No0%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes6 traders

Total Value$985.22

Total Shares1,554

Combined PnL+$212.77

No5 traders

Total Value$206.95

Total Shares1,409

Combined PnL-$360.06

Yes — 55%No — 45%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+20 pts consensus

Breadth

2 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Fresh

1h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

40% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrYes 50% · 4

Aligned

Top 1000No 60% · 5

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
SU suntori	Yesavg 50.6¢	$495.23	$479.37	-$15.86	46% 2583-3072 (5655)
dips.	Yesavg 51.5¢	$108.2	$210.11	+$101.91	47% 963-1084 (2047)
SM smithagent	Yesavg 46¢	$84.18	$173.21	+$89.03	45% 651-805 (1456)
SN SnakeBallCTR	Noavg 36.3¢	$380.61	$162.55	-$218.06	47% 895-991 (1886)
SH shiifoo<$100	Yesavg 46¢	$33.58	$69.09	+$35.51	61% 1421-900 (2321)
LE LeLynxMalynx<$100	Yesavg 47¢	$47.47	$49.49	+$2.02	56% 460-366 (826)
LI LightParadoxCTR<$100	Noavg 53¢	$63.07	$20.83	-$42.25	37% 956-1658 (2614)
MA MadridTimeCTR	Noavg 49¢	$111.49	$11.37	-$100.13	37% 965-1630 (2595)
FL FlaznorpCTR<$100	Noavg 49¢	$6.93	$7.2	+$0.27	49% 3801-3964 (7765)
SE sentrioCTR<$100	Noavg 49¢	$4.9	$5	+$0.1	42% 989-1357 (2346)
0X 0x5e83c9db1593a9113fffa791797cf9655b383bb7<$100	Yesavg 47¢	$3.79	$3.95	+$0.16	21% 55-212 (267)

suntori

Yes

Invested

$495.23

Value

$479.37

PnL

-$15.86

Record

46%

2583-3072 (5655)

dips.

Yes

Invested

$108.2

Value

$210.11

PnL

+$101.91

Record

47%

963-1084 (2047)

smithagent

Yes

Invested

$84.18

Value

$173.21

PnL

+$89.03

Record

45%

651-805 (1456)

SnakeBallCTR

Invested

$380.61

Value

$162.55

PnL

-$218.06

Record

47%

895-991 (1886)

shiifoo<$100

Yes

Invested

$33.58

Value

$69.09

PnL

+$35.51

Record

61%

1421-900 (2321)

LeLynxMalynx<$100

Yes

Invested

$47.47

Value

$49.49

PnL

+$2.02

Record

56%

460-366 (826)

LightParadoxCTR<$100

Invested

$63.07

Value

$20.83

PnL

-$42.25

Record

37%

956-1658 (2614)

MadridTimeCTR

Invested

$111.49

Value

$11.37

PnL

-$100.13

Record

37%

965-1630 (2595)

FlaznorpCTR<$100

Invested

$6.93

Value

$7.2

PnL

+$0.27

Record

49%

3801-3964 (7765)

sentrioCTR<$100

Invested

$4.9

Value

PnL

+$0.1

Record

42%

989-1357 (2346)

0x5e83c9db1593a9113fffa791797cf9655b383bb7<$100

Yes

Invested

$3.79

Value

$3.95

PnL

+$0.16

Record

21%

55-212 (267)

Research grade

NeutralYes at 100%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

6 of 11 top traders (55%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+20 pts consensus

Breadth

2 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Fresh

1h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

40% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrYes 50% · 4

Aligned

Top 1000No 60% · 5

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.9%

100.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.10

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.