China PR vs. Malaysia: 1st Half O/U 2.5

11 of 13 top Polymarket traders hold Under (85%) · Under at 93¢ · $712 held · ended Nov 14

Over8¢Under92¢Ended Sat, Nov 14, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Under

Consensus Traders

Under 85%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$712.16

Combined PnL

-$13.13

Smart Money Entry

59.9¢ → 92.5¢

+54% since entry · 11 traders

Research grade

NeutralUnder at 93%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Under

11 of 13 top traders (85%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed2 hold an outcome priced under 50%11 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Over8%

Under93%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Under11 traders

Total Value$569.1

Total Shares874

Combined PnL-$16.36

Over2 traders

Total Value$41.22

Total Shares266

Combined PnL+$3.22

Under — 85%Over — 15%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
LI Limousin	Underavg 49.8¢	$220.97	$215.09	-$5.88	36% 926-1642 (2568)
SU suntori	Underavg 88¢	$210.02	$166.84	-$38.35	46% 2583-3072 (5655)
CI cigarettesARB<$100	Underavg 70.1¢	$98.65	$101.84	+$3.19	53% 7043-6178 (13221)
└ Under leg	Underavg 70.1¢	$60.61	$62.66	+$2.05
└ Over leg	Overavg 26.7¢	$38.04	$39.18	+$1.14
poshposh<$100	Underavg 56.4¢	$47.75	$58.19	+$10.44	48% 1092-1167 (2259)
LU LuckyLoo<$100	Underavg 42.1¢	$28.7	$34.13	+$5.42	35% 437-797 (1234)
FL FlaznorpCTR<$100	Overavg 12¢	$21.48	$27.75	+$6.27	49% 3801-3964 (7765)
MA MadridTime<$100	Underavg 46.9¢	$11.61	$22.42	+$10.81	37% 965-1630 (2595)
SM smithagent<$100	Underavg 78.9¢	$20.79	$21.73	+$0.94	45% 651-805 (1456)
0X 0x6b25c5c4d1e681d2203297803793ad8c732b7a69<$100	Underavg 84¢	$16.8	$16.9	+$0.1	50% 153-150 (303)
dips.<$100	Underavg 75¢	$14.91	$14.61	-$0.3	47% 963-1084 (2047)
alpheclabs2CTR<$100	Overavg 19¢	$16.51	$13.47	-$3.04	45% 281-340 (621)
LR lryyy<$100	Underavg 66.5¢	$11.57	$12.96	+$1.38	45% 795-974 (1769)
0X 0xdbdd45150249e229eB4cA8aa48A30Dca21Faa5de-1757094771846<$100	Underavg 70¢	$4.7	$4.06	-$0.64	38% 531-877 (1408)
VE Venusian<$100	Underavg 49¢	$2.45	$2.18	-$0.28	36% 944-1666 (2610)

Limousin

Under

Invested

$220.97

Value

$215.09

PnL

-$5.88

Record

36%

926-1642 (2568)

suntori

Under

Invested

$210.02

Value

$166.84

PnL

-$38.35

Record

46%

2583-3072 (5655)

cigarettesARB<$100

Under

Invested

$98.65

Value

$101.84

PnL

+$3.19

Record

53%

7043-6178 (13221)

Both legs:

Under$60.6170.1¢+$2.05

Over$38.0426.7¢+$1.14

poshposh<$100

Under

Invested

$47.75

Value

$58.19

PnL

+$10.44

Record

48%

1092-1167 (2259)

LuckyLoo<$100

Under

Invested

$28.7

Value

$34.13

PnL

+$5.42

Record

35%

437-797 (1234)

FlaznorpCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$21.48

Value

$27.75

PnL

+$6.27

Record

49%

3801-3964 (7765)

MadridTime<$100

Under

Invested

$11.61

Value

$22.42

PnL

+$10.81

Record

37%

965-1630 (2595)

smithagent<$100

Under

Invested

$20.79

Value

$21.73

PnL

+$0.94

Record

45%

651-805 (1456)

0x6b25c5c4d1e681d2203297803793ad8c732b7a69<$100

Under

Invested

$16.8

Value

$16.9

PnL

+$0.1

Record

50%

153-150 (303)

dips.<$100

Under

Invested

$14.91

Value

$14.61

PnL

-$0.3

Record

47%

963-1084 (2047)

alpheclabs2CTR<$100

Over

Invested

$16.51

Value

$13.47

PnL

-$3.04

Record

45%

281-340 (621)

lryyy<$100

Under

Invested

$11.57

Value

$12.96

PnL

+$1.38

Record

45%

795-974 (1769)

0xdbdd45150249e229eB4cA8aa48A30Dca21Faa5de-1757094771846<$100

Under

Invested

$4.7

Value

$4.06

PnL

-$0.64

Record

38%

531-877 (1408)

Venusian<$100

Under

Invested

$2.45

Value

$2.18

PnL

-$0.28

Record

36%

944-1666 (2610)

Research grade

NeutralUnder at 93%

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Under

11 of 13 top traders (85%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed2 hold an outcome priced under 50%11 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

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EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Under wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance93.8%

92.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.3¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$6.61

Max Loss

-$100.00

106.6

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.