China PR vs. Malaysia: 1st Half O/U 1.5

6 of 12 top Polymarket traders hold Over (50%) · Over at 100¢ · $1K held · ended Nov 14

Over>99¢Under<1¢Ended Sat, Nov 14, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Over

Consensus Traders

Over 50%

Total Value

$1.1K

Combined PnL

$185.05

Smart Money Entry

36.5¢ → 100¢

+174% since entry · 6 traders

Research grade

NeutralOver at 100%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Over

6 of 12 top traders (50%)6 hold an outcome priced under 50%11 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Over100%

Under0%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Over6 traders

Total Value$950.62

Total Shares1,794

Combined PnL+$293.63

Under6 traders

Total Value$128.8

Total Shares551

Combined PnL-$108.58

Over — 50%Under — 50%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
FL Flaznorp	Overavg 34.2¢	$522.2	$770.29	+$248.09	49% 3801-3964 (7765)
LU LuckyLooCTR<$100	Underavg 37.7¢	$64.6	$71.04	+$6.44	35% 437-797 (1234)
FE ferdinand2<$100	Overavg 34¢	$39.1	$58.08	+$18.98	48% 2063-2220 (4283)
dips.<$100	Overavg 63.7¢	$29.43	$46.2	+$16.77	47% 963-1084 (2047)
VeryLucky888CTR<$100	Underavg 63¢	$46.86	$36.82	-$10.04	53% 1337-1165 (2502)
LR lryyy<$100	Overavg 67.6¢	$23.69	$30.79	+$7.09	45% 795-974 (1769)
CI cigarettes<$100	Overavg 62¢	$31	$29.25	-$1.75	53% 7043-6178 (13221)
LE LeLynxMalynxCTR<$100	Underavg 64¢	$23	$17.79	-$5.21	56% 460-366 (826)
SU suntori<$100	Overavg 45.1¢	$11.56	$16.02	+$4.46	46% 2583-3072 (5655)
VE VenusianCTR<$100	Underavg 37¢	$2.93	$3.01	+$0.08	36% 944-1666 (2610)
LI LightParadoxCTR<$100	Underavg 38.4¢	$88.47	$0.12	-$88.36	37% 956-1658 (2614)
LI LimousinCTR<$100	Underavg 37.5¢	$11.51	$0.02	-$11.5	36% 926-1642 (2568)

Flaznorp

Over

Invested

$522.2

Value

$770.29

PnL

+$248.09

Record

49%

3801-3964 (7765)

LuckyLooCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$64.6

Value

$71.04

PnL

+$6.44

Record

35%

437-797 (1234)

ferdinand2<$100

Over

Invested

$39.1

Value

$58.08

PnL

+$18.98

Record

48%

2063-2220 (4283)

dips.<$100

Over

Invested

$29.43

Value

$46.2

PnL

+$16.77

Record

47%

963-1084 (2047)

VeryLucky888CTR<$100

Under

Invested

$46.86

Value

$36.82

PnL

-$10.04

Record

53%

1337-1165 (2502)

lryyy<$100

Over

Invested

$23.69

Value

$30.79

PnL

+$7.09

Record

45%

795-974 (1769)

cigarettes<$100

Over

Invested

$31

Value

$29.25

PnL

-$1.75

Record

53%

7043-6178 (13221)

LeLynxMalynxCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$23

Value

$17.79

PnL

-$5.21

Record

56%

460-366 (826)

suntori<$100

Over

Invested

$11.56

Value

$16.02

PnL

+$4.46

Record

46%

2583-3072 (5655)

VenusianCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$2.93

Value

$3.01

PnL

+$0.08

Record

36%

944-1666 (2610)

LightParadoxCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$88.47

Value

$0.12

PnL

-$88.36

Record

37%

956-1658 (2614)

LimousinCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$11.51

Value

$0.02

PnL

-$11.5

Record

36%

926-1642 (2568)

Research grade

NeutralOver at 100%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

Over

6 of 12 top traders (50%)6 hold an outcome priced under 50%11 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

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EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Over wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.9%

100.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.10

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.