Will China PR vs. Malaysia end in a draw?

3 of 10 top Polymarket traders hold No (30%) · No at 78¢ · $415 held · ends Nov 14

Yes23¢No77¢Ends Sat, Nov 14, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 30%

Total Value

$415.34

Combined PnL

-$1.78

Smart Money Entry

79.5¢ → 77.5¢

-2% since entry · 3 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 78%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

3 of 10 top traders (30%)7 hold an outcome priced under 50%9 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes23%

No78%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No3 traders

Total Value$260.83

Total Shares331

Combined PnL-$2.62

Yes7 traders

Total Value$154.08

Total Shares749

Combined PnL+$0.84

No — 30%Yes — 70%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
CI cigarettes	Noavg 79.7¢	$191.37	$188.37	-$3	53% 7043-6177 (13220)
0X 0x9b129aD05Bc0a8df3C73DfCC66fE75252DaEC2D5-1778811687225<$100	Noavg 79¢	$39.92	$39.67	-$0.25	46% 1098-1303 (2401)
VE VenusianCTR<$100	Yesavg 20¢	$37.8	$35.91	-$1.89	36% 944-1666 (2610)
LI LightParadoxCTR<$100	Yesavg 20.3¢	$32.11	$35.67	+$3.56	37% 956-1658 (2614)
LE LeLynxMalynx<$100	Noavg 78.5¢	$32.17	$32.79	+$0.63	56% 460-366 (826)
MA MadridTimeCTR<$100	Yesavg 20¢	$30.89	$29.35	-$1.54	37% 965-1630 (2595)
SU suntoriCTR<$100	Yesavg 21.5¢	$24.8	$25.98	+$1.18	46% 2570-3056 (5626)
LI LimousinCTR<$100	Yesavg 19.7¢	$21.63	$23.08	+$1.45	36% 926-1642 (2568)
GU guilttripCTR<$100	Yesavg 33.3¢	$4.02	$2.29	-$1.73	42% 18-25 (43)
0X 0x5e83c9db1593a9113fffa791797cf9655b383bb7CTR<$100	Yesavg 21¢	$1.99	$1.8	-$0.19	21% 55-212 (267)

cigarettes

Invested

$191.37

Value

$188.37

PnL

-$3

Record

53%

7043-6177 (13220)

0x9b129aD05Bc0a8df3C73DfCC66fE75252DaEC2D5-1778811687225<$100

Invested

$39.92

Value

$39.67

PnL

-$0.25

Record

46%

1098-1303 (2401)

VenusianCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$37.8

Value

$35.91

PnL

-$1.89

Record

36%

944-1666 (2610)

LightParadoxCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$32.11

Value

$35.67

PnL

+$3.56

Record

37%

956-1658 (2614)

LeLynxMalynx<$100

Invested

$32.17

Value

$32.79

PnL

+$0.63

Record

56%

460-366 (826)

MadridTimeCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$30.89

Value

$29.35

PnL

-$1.54

Record

37%

965-1630 (2595)

suntoriCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$24.8

Value

$25.98

PnL

+$1.18

Record

46%

2570-3056 (5626)

LimousinCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$21.63

Value

$23.08

PnL

+$1.45

Record

36%

926-1642 (2568)

guilttripCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$4.02

Value

$2.29

PnL

-$1.73

Record

42%

18-25 (43)

0x5e83c9db1593a9113fffa791797cf9655b383bb7CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$1.99

Value

$1.8

PnL

-$0.19

Record

21%

55-212 (267)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 78%

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

3 of 10 top traders (30%)7 hold an outcome priced under 50%9 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance79.3%

77.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.8¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$26.03

Max Loss

-$100.00

126.0

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.