Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold No, while the market favors Yes (64%). 7 of 10 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.
Will China PR win on 2026-11-14?
7 of 10 top Polymarket traders hold No (70%) · No at 37¢ · $1K held · ends Nov 14
⚖️
Neutral
No
10
No 70%
$1.4K
$19.56
36.1¢ → 36.5¢
+1% since entry · 7 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 37%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
7 of 10 top traders (70%)Underdog side (market favors Yes 64%)7 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Surging
+11 pts consensus
Breadth
7 traders
Top 2 hold 84%
Freshness
Fresh
1h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
78% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 84% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
FL FlaznorpCTR | Noavg 35.4¢ | $523.08 | $546.36 | +$23.27 | 49% 3713-3859 (7572) |
SU suntori | Yesavg 63.4¢ | $262.87 | $263.21 | +$0.34 | 45% 2465-2964 (5429) |
ZZ Zzzz87 | Yesavg 63¢ | $231.21 | $229.38 | -$1.84 | 62% 85-53 (138) |
 VeryLucky888CTR | Noavg 37¢ | $185 | $177.03 | -$2.42 | 53% 1284-1125 (2409) |
SE sentrioCTR<$100 | Noavg 36.6¢ | $54.01 | $55.36 | +$1.35 | 42% 963-1323 (2286) |
BI biying99999CTR<$100 | Noavg 37¢ | $47.36 | $47.36 | +$0 | 34% 99-192 (291) |
 leflaiveCTR<$100 | Noavg 39¢ | $39 | $37 | -$2 | 50% 17-17 (34) |
LE LeLynxMalynxCTR<$100 | Noavg 37¢ | $23.68 | $23.68 | +$0 | 56% 444-355 (799) |
FE ferdinand2CTR<$100 | Noavg 35.2¢ | $17.61 | $18.5 | +$0.89 | 48% 2007-2139 (4146) |
TH thatsabing0<$100 | Yesavg 63¢ | $3.84 | $3.81 | -$0.03 | 62% 198-120 (318) |
Invested
$523.08
Value
$546.36
PnL
+$23.27
Record
49%
3713-3859 (7572)
Invested
$262.87
Value
$263.21
PnL
+$0.34
Record
45%
2465-2964 (5429)
Invested
$231.21
Value
$229.38
PnL
-$1.84
Record
62%
85-53 (138)
VeryLucky888CTRInvested
$185
Value
$177.03
PnL
-$2.42
Record
53%
1284-1125 (2409)
Invested
$54.01
Value
$55.36
PnL
+$1.35
Record
42%
963-1323 (2286)
Invested
$47.36
Value
$47.36
PnL
+$0
Record
34%
99-192 (291)
leflaiveCTR<$100Invested
$39
Value
$37
PnL
-$2
Record
50%
17-17 (34)
Invested
$23.68
Value
$23.68
PnL
+$0
Record
56%
444-355 (799)
Invested
$17.61
Value
$18.5
PnL
+$0.89
Record
48%
2007-2139 (4146)
Invested
$3.84
Value
$3.81
PnL
-$0.03
Record
62%
198-120 (318)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
36.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.