China PR vs. Malaysia: Both Teams to Score
5 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold No (56%) · No at 55¢ · $867 held · ended Nov 14
⚖️
Neutral
No
9
No 56%
$867.25
$12.95
46.7¢ → 55¢
+18% since entry · 5 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 55%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
5 of 9 top traders (56%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
3 traders
Top 2 hold 96%
Freshness
Fresh
1h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
60% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 96% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
SN SnakeBall | Noavg 48.2¢ | $475.65 | $479 | +$3.35 | 47% 895-991 (1886) |
SU suntoriCTR | Yesavg 53.4¢ | $154.26 | $150.23 | -$4.03 | 46% 2583-3072 (5655) |
FL Flaznorp<$100 | Noavg 48.1¢ | $74.91 | $76.37 | +$1.46 | 49% 3801-3964 (7765) |
LI Limousin<$100 | Noavg 38¢ | $52.85 | $65.99 | +$13.14 | 36% 926-1642 (2568) |
CI cigarettesCTR<$100 | Yesavg 63¢ | $31.5 | $27.75 | -$3.75 | 53% 7043-6178 (13221) |
MA MadridTime<$100 | Noavg 37.6¢ | $20.44 | $25.8 | +$5.36 | 37% 965-1630 (2595) |
 poshposhCTR<$100 | Yesavg 63¢ | $25.02 | $22.36 | -$2.66 | 48% 1092-1167 (2259) |
SE sentrio<$100 | Noavg 48.2¢ | $13.87 | $14.1 | +$0.24 | 42% 989-1357 (2346) |
LR lryyyCTR<$100 | Yesavg 58¢ | $5.8 | $5.65 | -$0.15 | 45% 795-974 (1769) |
Invested
$475.65
Value
$479
PnL
+$3.35
Record
47%
895-991 (1886)
Invested
$154.26
Value
$150.23
PnL
-$4.03
Record
46%
2583-3072 (5655)
Invested
$74.91
Value
$76.37
PnL
+$1.46
Record
49%
3801-3964 (7765)
Invested
$52.85
Value
$65.99
PnL
+$13.14
Record
36%
926-1642 (2568)
Invested
$31.5
Value
$27.75
PnL
-$3.75
Record
53%
7043-6178 (13221)
Invested
$20.44
Value
$25.8
PnL
+$5.36
Record
37%
965-1630 (2595)
poshposhCTR<$100Invested
$25.02
Value
$22.36
PnL
-$2.66
Record
48%
1092-1167 (2259)
Invested
$13.87
Value
$14.1
PnL
+$0.24
Record
42%
989-1357 (2346)
Invested
$5.8
Value
$5.65
PnL
-$0.15
Record
45%
795-974 (1769)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
55.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.