Consensus Lost ✗
Smart money consensus was Under — but Over won instead.
Bahrain vs. Yemen: O/U 3.5
Resolved Over. 75% of the top Polymarket traders held Under. The smart money was wrong.
💀
Lost
4
Under 75%
3 arb excluded
$1.2K
-$116.2
Smart Money Signal
3 of 4 top traders (75%)3 arbitrage traders dimmed3 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
FL FlaznorpARB<$100 | Underavg 35.6¢ | $1.3K | $764.98 | -$581.22 | 49% 3769-3940 (7709) |
| └ Under leg | Underavg 35.6¢ | $910.34 | — | -$910.34 | |
| └ Over leg | Overavg 57¢ | $435.86 | $764.98 | +$329.12 | |
0X 0xdbdd45150249e229eB4cA8aa48A30Dca21Faa5de-1757094771846ARB<$100 | Underavg 60¢ | $213.8 | $259.89 | +$46.09 | 38% 530-872 (1402) |
| └ Over leg | Overavg 38¢ | $98.81 | $259.89 | +$161.08 | |
| └ Under leg | Underavg 60¢ | $115 | — | -$115 | |
GO GoalLineGhostARB<$100 | Underavg 76.5¢ | $146.88 | $153.32 | +$6.44 | 53% 2055-1798 (3853) |
| └ Over leg | Overavg 21¢ | $32.2 | $153.32 | +$121.12 | |
| └ Under leg | Underavg 76.5¢ | $114.69 | — | -$114.69 | |
SU suntori<$100 | Overavg 56.8¢ | $38.09 | $67.02 | +$28.93 | 46% 2546-3015 (5561) |
E4 e46m3CTR | Underavg 79¢ | $119.95 | — | -$119.95 | 42% 2632-3658 (6290) |
FE ferdinand2CTR<$100 | Underavg 26.4¢ | $10.1 | — | -$10.1 | 48% 2045-2201 (4246) |
 VeryLucky888CTR<$100 | Underavg 76¢ | $15.07 | — | -$15.07 | 53% 1318-1151 (2469) |
Invested
$1,346.19
Value
$764.98
PnL
-$581.22
Record
49%
3769-3940 (7709)
Both legs:
Invested
$213.8
Value
$259.89
PnL
+$46.09
Record
38%
530-872 (1402)
Both legs:
Invested
$146.88
Value
$153.32
PnL
+$6.44
Record
53%
2055-1798 (3853)
Both legs:
Invested
$38.09
Value
$67.02
PnL
+$28.93
Record
46%
2546-3015 (5561)
Invested
$119.95
Value
—
PnL
-$119.95
Record
42%
2632-3658 (6290)
Invested
$10.1
Value
—
PnL
-$10.1
Record
48%
2045-2201 (4246)
VeryLucky888CTR<$100Invested
$15.07
Value
—
PnL
-$15.07
Record
53%
1318-1151 (2469)