Will Bahrain win on 2026-11-14?

7 of 10 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (70%) · Yes at 99¢ · $5K held · ended Nov 14

Yes99¢No1¢Ended Sat, Nov 14, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 70%

2 arb excluded

Total Value

$4.6K

Combined PnL

$205.01

Smart Money Entry

68.2¢ → 99¢

+45% since entry · 7 traders

Research grade

NeutralYes at 99%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

7 of 10 top traders (70%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed3 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes99%

No1%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes7 traders

Total Value$1.0K

Total Shares1,194

Combined PnL+$215.78

No3 traders

Total Value$10.88

Total Shares72

Combined PnL-$10.77

Yes — 70%No — 30%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

-13 pts consensus

Breadth

7 traders

Top 2 hold 60%

Freshness

Fresh

6h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

70% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 60% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpYes 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrYes 60% · 5

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 70% · 10

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
FL FlaznorpARB<$100	Noavg 31.7¢	$4.0K	$3.3K	-$716.91	49% 3740-3887 (7627)
└ Yes leg	Yesavg 78.9¢	$2.0K	$2.0K	+$27.13
└ No leg	Noavg 31.7¢	$2.0K	$1.3K	-$744.05
SU suntori	Yesavg 82.6¢	$333.31	$399.28	+$65.97	46% 2495-2986 (5481)
GO GoalLineGhost	Yesavg 61.4¢	$195.95	$253.46	+$57.5	53% 2050-1788 (3838)
SE sentrioARB<$100	Noavg 18.9¢	$240.46	$250.34	+$9.88	42% 970-1328 (2298)
└ No leg	Noavg 18.9¢	$130.31	$137.97	+$7.66
└ Yes leg	Yesavg 78.4¢	$110.15	$112.37	+$2.21
DV dv-pm	Yesavg 60¢	$186.48	$248.64	+$62.16	42% 27-38 (65)
NM NM-P<$100	Yesavg 60.4¢	$32.25	$42.72	+$10.47	59% 3754-2580 (6334)
GC GC-P<$100	Yesavg 60.4¢	$32.25	$42.72	+$10.47	37% 344-596 (940)
TH thatsabing0<$100	Yesavg 60¢	$27.62	$36.83	+$9.21	62% 200-121 (321)
KupaKeepKlan<$100	Yesavg 80¢	$9.04	$9.04	+$0	100% 73-0 (73)
HI hi774cCTR<$100	Noavg 37¢	$17	$7.9	-$9.09	22% 175-612 (787)
FE ferdinand2CTR<$100	Noavg 17.4¢	$12.03	$2.86	+$0.7	48% 2022-2162 (4184)
0X 0x5e83c9db1593a9113fffa791797cf9655b383bb7CTR<$100	Noavg 21¢	$2.49	$0.12	-$2.37	21% 55-205 (260)

FlaznorpARB<$100

Invested

$3,994.5

Value

$3.3K

PnL

-$716.91

Record

49%

3740-3887 (7627)

Both legs:

Yes$1,981.678.9¢+$27.13

No$2,012.931.7¢-$744.05

suntori

Yes

Invested

$333.31

Value

$399.28

PnL

+$65.97

Record

46%

2495-2986 (5481)

GoalLineGhost

Yes

Invested

$195.95

Value

$253.46

PnL

+$57.5

Record

53%

2050-1788 (3838)

sentrioARB<$100

Invested

$240.46

Value

$250.34

PnL

+$9.88

Record

42%

970-1328 (2298)

Both legs:

No$130.3118.9¢+$7.66

Yes$110.1578.4¢+$2.21

dv-pm

Yes

Invested

$186.48

Value

$248.64

PnL

+$62.16

Record

42%

27-38 (65)

NM-P<$100

Yes

Invested

$32.25

Value

$42.72

PnL

+$10.47

Record

59%

3754-2580 (6334)

GC-P<$100

Yes

Invested

$32.25

Value

$42.72

PnL

+$10.47

Record

37%

344-596 (940)

thatsabing0<$100

Yes

Invested

$27.62

Value

$36.83

PnL

+$9.21

Record

62%

200-121 (321)

KupaKeepKlan<$100

Yes

Invested

$9.04

Value

$9.04

PnL

+$0

Record

100%

73-0 (73)

hi774cCTR<$100

Invested

$17

Value

$7.9

PnL

-$9.09

Record

22%

175-612 (787)

ferdinand2CTR<$100

Invested

$12.03

Value

$2.86

PnL

+$0.7

Record

48%

2022-2162 (4184)

0x5e83c9db1593a9113fffa791797cf9655b383bb7CTR<$100

Invested

$2.49

Value

$0.12

PnL

-$2.37

Record

21%

55-205 (260)

Research grade

NeutralYes at 99%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

7 of 10 top traders (70%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed3 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

-13 pts consensus

Breadth

7 traders

Top 2 hold 60%

Freshness

Fresh

6h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

70% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 60% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpYes 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrYes 60% · 5

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 70% · 10

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.9%

99.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.10

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.