Will Argentina win on 2026-11-13?
2 of 4 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (50%) · Yes at 61¢ · $2K held · ends Nov 13
⚖️
Neutral
Yes
4
Yes 50%
1 arb excluded
$2.4K
$120.63
58.4¢ → 60.5¢
+4% since entry · 2 traders
Research grade
NeutralYes at 61%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
2 of 4 top traders (50%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed2 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
2 traders
Top 2 hold 100%
Freshness
Fresh
0h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
50% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
FL FlaznorpARB<$100 | Noavg 37.9¢ | $1.1K | $1.1K | +$23.43 | 51% 1908-1842 (3750) |
| └ No leg | Noavg 37.9¢ | $820.96 | $844.39 | +$23.43 | |
| └ Yes leg | Yesavg 61¢ | $304.39 | $304.39 | +$0 | |
 VeryLucky888 | Yesavg 58.2¢ | $1.3K | $653.66 | +$82.67 | 52% 490-447 (937) |
HI hi774cCTR | Noavg 36¢ | $394.96 | $427.88 | +$32.91 | 14% 77-472 (549) |
DA darkumbreon88<$100 | Yesavg 60¢ | $93.25 | $94.8 | +$1.55 | 61% 928-594 (1522) |
SE sentrioCTR<$100 | Noavg 37.4¢ | $82.85 | $86.34 | +$3.49 | 39% 382-610 (992) |
Invested
$1,125.35
Value
$1.1K
PnL
+$23.43
Record
51%
1908-1842 (3750)
Both legs:
VeryLucky888Invested
$1,312.36
Value
$653.66
PnL
+$82.67
Record
52%
490-447 (937)
Invested
$394.96
Value
$427.88
PnL
+$32.91
Record
14%
77-472 (549)
Invested
$93.25
Value
$94.8
PnL
+$1.55
Record
61%
928-594 (1522)
Invested
$82.85
Value
$86.34
PnL
+$3.49
Record
39%
382-610 (992)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
60.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.