Will fewer than 215 House members vote to impeach Hegseth by December 31?

20 of 21 top Polymarket traders hold No (95%) · No at 98¢ · $2K held · ends Jan 1, 2027

Yes2¢No98¢Ends Fri, Jan 1, 2027View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 95%

Total Value

$1.5K

Combined PnL

$150.27

Smart Money Entry

81.7¢ → 98.3¢

+20% since entry · 20 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 98%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

20 of 21 top traders (95%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%16 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes2%

No98%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No20 traders

Total Value$1.5K

Total Shares1,531

Combined PnL+$250.45

Yes1 trader

Total Value$14.58

Total Shares884

Combined PnL-$100.18

No — 95%Yes — 5%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

20 traders

Top 2 hold 50%

Freshness

Mature

28h old

Flip Quality

Watch

2 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

95% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 50% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (1 on Yes) and the top 1000 (21 on No) disagree here.

sharpNo 100% · 15

Aligned

ctrNo 50% · 2

Aligned

Hand-pickedYes 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000No 95% · 21

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
CB Cb94C437EA5e6f088c6c0C143c592ab8EFBed	Noavg 76¢	$370.49	$406.48	+$92.62	66% 4093-2118 (6211)
Lucerys	Noavg 77.1¢	$270.65	$347.66	+$77.01	37% 3136-5367 (8503)
QW qwen300.fund	Noavg 93.3¢	$112	$118.8	+$6.8	30% 2654-6198 (8852)
balthazar	Noavg 87.8¢	$95.63	$107.78	+$12.15	51% 4598-4501 (9099)
LornaPredicts<$100	Noavg 90¢	$94.14	$99.85	+$5.71	12% 18-130 (148)
NO northdrawer<$100	Noavg 77.9¢	$70.11	$89.1	+$18.99	27% 921-2513 (3434)
HA haveagoodday<$100	Noavg 97¢	$72.75	$74.25	+$1.5	40% 1439-2157 (3596)
XT xtxpleasecallme<$100	Noavg 83.9¢	$54.9	$53.41	-$1.49	41% 3094-4459 (7553)
CI cigarettes<$100	Noavg 74¢	$29.6	$39.6	+$10	53% 5575-4959 (10534)
SM smallreceipt<$100	Noavg 78.4¢	$30.82	$38.9	+$8.08	12% 52-372 (424)
GO god83743894<$100	Noavg 91¢	$27.3	$29.7	+$2.4	14% 55-329 (384)
0X 0x1F85EB9C455c5BDEF5D96C2739076678c7157B02-1778811447702<$100	Noavg 76.7¢	$21.09	$27.21	+$6.12	46% 317-371 (688)
0X 0x3653235d75A0d5969C42f7514d4Df8eA5F8CEF74-1778811817579<$100	Noavg 89.8¢	$15.43	$17.02	+$1.58	42% 338-475 (813)
LU luciebot<$100	Noavg 87.3¢	$13.96	$15.84	+$1.88	78% 314-87 (401)
PA pantomimeCTR	Yesavg 13¢	$114.76	$14.58	-$100.18	— 2-3 (5)
AN anothercoin<$100	Noavg 97¢	$12.42	$12.67	+$0.26	39% 1259-1997 (3256)
0X 0x8B8b9c565C8dCA43cfb767F0F2C20B2B323d2512-1778811726293<$100	Noavg 81.2¢	$9.1	$11.1	+$1.99	48% 307-339 (646)
0X 0x9b129aD05Bc0a8df3C73DfCC66fE75252DaEC2D5-1778811687225<$100	Noavg 81.2¢	$9.04	$11.03	+$1.99	40% 657-967 (1624)
DO donthackme<$100	Noavg 99¢	$9.88	$9.88	+$0	75% 27-9 (36)
0X 0x4E72c22CD76f9973a48aedfd79FeEAaCC8B7FFb9-1778811541343<$100	Noavg 72¢	$4.34	$5.97	+$1.63	41% 342-497 (839)
0X 0x1aBc2b469b5dED495d6C8B21Fc79dcb8d8f345E7-1778811281023<$100	Noavg 75¢	$3.85	$5.08	+$1.23	43% 334-446 (780)

Cb94C437EA5e6f088c6c0C143c592ab8EFBed

Invested

$370.49

Value

$406.48

PnL

+$92.62

Record

66%

4093-2118 (6211)

Lucerys

Invested

$270.65

Value

$347.66

PnL

+$77.01

Record

37%

3136-5367 (8503)

qwen300.fund

Invested

$112

Value

$118.8

PnL

+$6.8

Record

30%

2654-6198 (8852)

balthazar

Invested

$95.63

Value

$107.78

PnL

+$12.15

Record

51%

4598-4501 (9099)

LornaPredicts<$100

Invested

$94.14

Value

$99.85

PnL

+$5.71

Record

12%

18-130 (148)

northdrawer<$100

Invested

$70.11

Value

$89.1

PnL

+$18.99

Record

27%

921-2513 (3434)

haveagoodday<$100

Invested

$72.75

Value

$74.25

PnL

+$1.5

Record

40%

1439-2157 (3596)

xtxpleasecallme<$100

Invested

$54.9

Value

$53.41

PnL

-$1.49

Record

41%

3094-4459 (7553)

cigarettes<$100

Invested

$29.6

Value

$39.6

PnL

+$10

Record

53%

5575-4959 (10534)

smallreceipt<$100

Invested

$30.82

Value

$38.9

PnL

+$8.08

Record

12%

52-372 (424)

god83743894<$100

Invested

$27.3

Value

$29.7

PnL

+$2.4

Record

14%

55-329 (384)

0x1F85EB9C455c5BDEF5D96C2739076678c7157B02-1778811447702<$100

Invested

$21.09

Value

$27.21

PnL

+$6.12

Record

46%

317-371 (688)

0x3653235d75A0d5969C42f7514d4Df8eA5F8CEF74-1778811817579<$100

Invested

$15.43

Value

$17.02

PnL

+$1.58

Record

42%

338-475 (813)

luciebot<$100

Invested

$13.96

Value

$15.84

PnL

+$1.88

Record

78%

314-87 (401)

pantomimeCTR

Yes

Invested

$114.76

Value

$14.58

PnL

-$100.18

Record

—

2-3 (5)

anothercoin<$100

Invested

$12.42

Value

$12.67

PnL

+$0.26

Record

39%

1259-1997 (3256)

0x8B8b9c565C8dCA43cfb767F0F2C20B2B323d2512-1778811726293<$100

Invested

$9.1

Value

$11.1

PnL

+$1.99

Record

48%

307-339 (646)

0x9b129aD05Bc0a8df3C73DfCC66fE75252DaEC2D5-1778811687225<$100

Invested

$9.04

Value

$11.03

PnL

+$1.99

Record

40%

657-967 (1624)

donthackme<$100

Invested

$9.88

Value

$9.88

PnL

+$0

Record

75%

27-9 (36)

0x4E72c22CD76f9973a48aedfd79FeEAaCC8B7FFb9-1778811541343<$100

Invested

$4.34

Value

$5.97

PnL

+$1.63

Record

41%

342-497 (839)

0x1aBc2b469b5dED495d6C8B21Fc79dcb8d8f345E7-1778811281023<$100

Invested

$3.85

Value

$5.08

PnL

+$1.23

Record

43%

334-446 (780)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 98%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

Smart Money Signal

20 of 21 top traders (95%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%16 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

20 traders

Top 2 hold 50%

Freshness

Mature

28h old

Flip Quality

Watch

2 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

95% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 50% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (1 on Yes) and the top 1000 (21 on No) disagree here.

sharpNo 100% · 15

Aligned

ctrNo 50% · 2

Aligned

Hand-pickedYes 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000No 95% · 21

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.3%

98.3¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Politics 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.68

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.7

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.