FAA outage attributed to AI?
8 of 11 top Polymarket traders hold No (73%) · No at 97¢ · $2K held · ends Dec 1
⚖️
Neutral
No
11
No 73%
$2.0K
$52.55
89.5¢ → 96.5¢
+8% since entry · 8 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 97%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
8 of 11 top traders (73%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Surging
+2 pts consensus
Breadth
8 traders
Top 2 hold 67%
Freshness
Fresh
2h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
73% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 67% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Mr-Krabs | Noavg 94.3¢ | $928.85 | $935.93 | +$7.08 | — 1-2 (3) |
PA pagliacci4 | Noavg 90¢ | $313.99 | $336.58 | +$22.59 | 65% 60-32 (92) |
DO dogerfad | Noavg 71¢ | $170.39 | $226.27 | +$55.87 | — 2-2 (4) |
 Dr.mett | Noavg 95.2¢ | $181.64 | $184.17 | +$2.53 | — 11-2 (13) |
PA PacersThreeandahalf | Noavg 97¢ | $101.43 | $100.88 | -$0.55 | 61% 1027-652 (1679) |
 Slowroasted<$100 | Noavg 87.2¢ | $79.29 | $87.76 | +$8.47 | — 2-0 (2) |
SQ SquirrelTheMerchant<$100 | Noavg 71¢ | $54.1 | $66 | +$16.1 | — 0-4 (4) |
 Parz1vaI<$100 | Noavg 67¢ | $23.86 | $33.65 | +$9.79 | 72% 1118-425 (1543) |
 paddaaCTR<$100 | Yesavg 13.5¢ | $53.43 | $15.81 | -$37.62 | 60% 503-336 (839) |
 HoshinoAICTR | Yesavg 6.6¢ | $143.93 | $13.97 | -$13.92 | 31% 20-45 (65) |
XT xtxpleasecallmeCTR | Yesavg 13.7¢ | $102.68 | $10.05 | -$17.79 | 39% 3599-5657 (9256) |
Mr-KrabsInvested
$928.85
Value
$935.93
PnL
+$7.08
Record
—
1-2 (3)
Invested
$313.99
Value
$336.58
PnL
+$22.59
Record
65%
60-32 (92)
Invested
$170.39
Value
$226.27
PnL
+$55.87
Record
—
2-2 (4)
Dr.mettInvested
$181.64
Value
$184.17
PnL
+$2.53
Record
—
11-2 (13)
Invested
$101.43
Value
$100.88
PnL
-$0.55
Record
61%
1027-652 (1679)
Slowroasted<$100Invested
$79.29
Value
$87.76
PnL
+$8.47
Record
—
2-0 (2)
Invested
$54.1
Value
$66
PnL
+$16.1
Record
—
0-4 (4)
Parz1vaI<$100Invested
$23.86
Value
$33.65
PnL
+$9.79
Record
72%
1118-425 (1543)
paddaaCTR<$100Invested
$53.43
Value
$15.81
PnL
-$37.62
Record
60%
503-336 (839)
HoshinoAICTRInvested
$143.93
Value
$13.97
PnL
-$13.92
Record
31%
20-45 (65)
Invested
$102.68
Value
$10.05
PnL
-$17.79
Record
39%
3599-5657 (9256)
Chat
EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
96.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Tech 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.