Partizan vs. Kosner Baskonia
2 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold Partizan (40%) · Partizan at 77¢ · $2K held · ends Nov 11
⚠️
Avoid
Partizan
5
Partizan 40%
$2.2K
$19.01
77¢ → 76.5¢
-1% since entry · 2 traders
Research grade
AvoidPartizan at 77%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.
- BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
2 of 5 top traders (40%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
2 traders
Top 2 hold 100%
Freshness
Fresh
0h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
40% of non-arb traders are on Partizan. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
BA Bayupati | Partizanavg 77¢ | $1.1K | $1.1K | -$14.49 | 9% 13-129 (142) |
LO lottajizzCTR | Kosner Baskoniaavg 23¢ | $378.7 | $386.94 | +$8.23 | — 0-7 (7) |
QU QuentinChenCTR | Kosner Baskoniaavg 23¢ | $367.75 | $367.75 | -$0 | 2% 3-152 (155) |
IS ismail40CTR | Kosner Baskoniaavg 23¢ | $312.49 | $312.49 | +$0 | 2% 3-128 (131) |
 VeryLucky888 | Partizanavg 76¢ | $590.8 | $16.54 | +$25.27 | 52% 455-428 (883) |
Invested
$1,115.73
Value
$1.1K
PnL
-$14.49
Record
9%
13-129 (142)
Invested
$378.7
Value
$386.94
PnL
+$8.23
Record
—
0-7 (7)
Invested
$367.75
Value
$367.75
PnL
-$0
Record
2%
3-152 (155)
Invested
$312.49
Value
$312.49
PnL
+$0
Record
2%
3-128 (131)
VeryLucky888Invested
$590.8
Value
$16.54
PnL
+$25.27
Record
52%
455-428 (883)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
76.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.9¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.