Olimpia Milano vs. Zalgiris Kaunas

9 of 13 top Polymarket traders hold Olimpia Milano (69%) · Olimpia Milano at 53¢ · $23K held · ended Nov 12

Olimpia Milano53¢Zalgiris Kaunas47¢Ended Thu, Nov 12, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Olimpia Milano

Consensus Traders

Olimpia Milano 69%

5 arb excluded

Total Value

$23.5K

Combined PnL

$1.3K

Smart Money Entry

44.6¢ → 52.5¢

+18% since entry · 9 traders

Research grade

AvoidOlimpia Milano at 53%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Olimpia Milano

9 of 13 top traders (69%)5 arbitrage traders dimmed4 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

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Outcome Probabilities

Olimpia Milano53%

Zalgiris Kaunas48%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Olimpia Milano9 traders

Total Value$13.4K

Total Shares27,155

Combined PnL+$1.3K

Zalgiris Kaunas4 traders

Total Value$1.1K

Total Shares1,810

Combined PnL+$13.9

Olimpia Milano — 69%Zalgiris Kaunas — 31%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

8 traders

Top 2 hold 60%

Freshness

Fresh

6h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

100% of non-arb traders are on Olimpia Milano. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 60% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpOlimpia Milano 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrOlimpia Milano 100% · 4

Aligned

Hand-pickedOlimpia Milano 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Olimpia Milano 100% · 7

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
HO HomeRunHazard	Olimpia Milanoavg 43.3¢	$4.0K	$4.5K	+$435.61	57% 3457-2627 (6084)
FL FlaznorpARB<$100	Olimpia Milanoavg 46.7¢	$4.4K	$4.2K	+$76.87	51% 2573-2489 (5062)
└ Olimpia Milano leg	Olimpia Milanoavg 46.7¢	$2.7K	$2.9K	+$221.95
└ Zalgiris Kaunas leg	Zalgiris Kaunasavg 55.1¢	$1.4K	$1.3K	-$145.08
SN SnakeBallARB<$100	Zalgiris Kaunasavg 52.3¢	$3.8K	$3.9K	+$90.76	46% 443-515 (958)
└ Olimpia Milano leg	Olimpia Milanoavg 45.5¢	$1.8K	$2.0K	+$159.85
└ Zalgiris Kaunas leg	Zalgiris Kaunasavg 52.3¢	$2.0K	$1.9K	-$69.08
BI biying88888	Olimpia Milanoavg 49.1¢	$3.2K	$3.3K	+$90.32	42% 169-231 (400)
VeryLucky888	Olimpia Milanoavg 43.2¢	$3.7K	$2.9K	+$327.38	52% 784-728 (1512)
0X 0xdbdd45150249e229eB4cA8aa48A30Dca21Faa5de-1757094771846	Olimpia Milanoavg 43.1¢	$2.0K	$2.4K	+$436.87	33% 320-651 (971)
NO NotJumpCTR	Zalgiris Kaunasavg 50.3¢	$627	$540	+$42	54% 475-399 (874)
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghighARB<$100	Olimpia Milanoavg 46.8¢	$500.57	$506.46	+$5.89	51% 2082-2008 (4090)
└ Olimpia Milano leg	Olimpia Milanoavg 46.8¢	$295.33	$312.62	+$17.29
└ Zalgiris Kaunas leg	Zalgiris Kaunasavg 53.5¢	$205.24	$193.85	-$11.4
SM smithagentCTR	Zalgiris Kaunasavg 54¢	$431.46	$391.51	-$39.95	42% 353-481 (834)
MI mishipolisARB<$100	Zalgiris Kaunasavg 54¢	$198	$200	+$2	43% 96-126 (222)
└ Zalgiris Kaunas leg	Zalgiris Kaunasavg 54¢	$108	$103	-$5
└ Olimpia Milano leg	Olimpia Milanoavg 45¢	$90	$97	+$7
CI cigarettesARB<$100	Olimpia Milanoavg 39¢	$115.5	$118.5	+$3	53% 6207-5499 (11706)
└ Zalgiris Kaunas leg	Zalgiris Kaunasavg 57¢	$57	$63	+$6
└ Olimpia Milano leg	Olimpia Milanoavg 39¢	$58.5	$55.5	-$3
SL SlickRick123CTR	Zalgiris Kaunasavg 56¢	$107.99	$115.7	+$7.71	27% 185-494 (679)
0X 0x8g68hBa8tyH1946Bhjb674g3fuyUIGYUi4uhflks	Olimpia Milanoavg 44.3¢	$93.85	$108.12	+$14.27	55% 210-170 (380)
0X 0x746295855BE6F49fE2DA2AcCD69eA34b3Cf23Ac3-1762436472554	Olimpia Milanoavg 42.6¢	$107	$95.35	-$11.65	46% 89-104 (193)
SE sentrio<$100	Olimpia Milanoavg 43¢	$74.3	$83	+$8.7	41% 562-807 (1369)
LR lryyyCTR<$100	Zalgiris Kaunasavg 56.1¢	$52.13	$56.27	+$4.13	44% 405-509 (914)
ARTEM-DZYUBA<$100	Olimpia Milanoavg 48¢	$19.2	$19.2	+$0	83% 395-82 (477)
FE ferdinand2<$100	Olimpia Milanoavg 41¢	$4.15	$4	-$0.15	49% 1261-1293 (2554)

HomeRunHazard

Olimpia Milano

Invested

$4,040.75

Value

$4.5K

PnL

+$435.61

Record

57%

3457-2627 (6084)

FlaznorpARB<$100

Olimpia Milano

Invested

$4,353.09

Value

$4.2K

PnL

+$76.87

Record

51%

2573-2489 (5062)

Both legs:

Olimpia Milano$2,712.546.7¢+$221.95

Zalgiris Kaunas$1,422.355.1¢-$145.08

SnakeBallARB<$100

Zalgiris Kaunas

Invested

$3,814.75

Value

$3.9K

PnL

+$90.76

Record

46%

443-515 (958)

Both legs:

Olimpia Milano$1,836.3545.5¢+$159.85

Zalgiris Kaunas$1,978.452.3¢-$69.08

biying88888

Olimpia Milano

Invested

$3,190.16

Value

$3.3K

PnL

+$90.32

Record

42%

169-231 (400)

VeryLucky888

Olimpia Milano

Invested

$3,723.22

Value

$2.9K

PnL

+$327.38

Record

52%

784-728 (1512)

0xdbdd45150249e229eB4cA8aa48A30Dca21Faa5de-1757094771846

Olimpia Milano

Invested

$2,007.74

Value

$2.4K

PnL

+$436.87

Record

33%

320-651 (971)

NotJumpCTR

Zalgiris Kaunas

Invested

$627

Value

$540

PnL

+$42

Record

54%

475-399 (874)

keeptheblueflagflyinghighARB<$100

Olimpia Milano

Invested

$500.57

Value

$506.46

PnL

+$5.89

Record

51%

2082-2008 (4090)

Both legs:

Olimpia Milano$295.3346.8¢+$17.29

Zalgiris Kaunas$205.2453.5¢-$11.4

smithagentCTR

Zalgiris Kaunas

Invested

$431.46

Value

$391.51

PnL

-$39.95

Record

42%

353-481 (834)

mishipolisARB<$100

Zalgiris Kaunas

Invested

$198

Value

$200

PnL

+$2

Record

43%

96-126 (222)

Both legs:

Zalgiris Kaunas$10854¢-$5

Olimpia Milano$9045¢+$7

cigarettesARB<$100

Olimpia Milano

Invested

$115.5

Value

$118.5

PnL

+$3

Record

53%

6207-5499 (11706)

Both legs:

Zalgiris Kaunas$5757¢+$6

Olimpia Milano$58.539¢-$3

SlickRick123CTR

Zalgiris Kaunas

Invested

$107.99

Value

$115.7

PnL

+$7.71

Record

27%

185-494 (679)

0x8g68hBa8tyH1946Bhjb674g3fuyUIGYUi4uhflks

Olimpia Milano

Invested

$93.85

Value

$108.12

PnL

+$14.27

Record

55%

210-170 (380)

0x746295855BE6F49fE2DA2AcCD69eA34b3Cf23Ac3-1762436472554

Olimpia Milano

Invested

$107

Value

$95.35

PnL

-$11.65

Record

46%

89-104 (193)

sentrio<$100

Olimpia Milano

Invested

$74.3

Value

$83

PnL

+$8.7

Record

41%

562-807 (1369)

lryyyCTR<$100

Zalgiris Kaunas

Invested

$52.13

Value

$56.27

PnL

+$4.13

Record

44%

405-509 (914)

ARTEM-DZYUBA<$100

Olimpia Milano

Invested

$19.2

Value

$19.2

PnL

+$0

Record

83%

395-82 (477)

ferdinand2<$100

Olimpia Milano

Invested

$4.15

Value

PnL

-$0.15

Record

49%

1261-1293 (2554)

Research grade

AvoidOlimpia Milano at 53%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

Smart Money Signal

Olimpia Milano

9 of 13 top traders (69%)5 arbitrage traders dimmed4 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

8 traders

Top 2 hold 60%

Freshness

Fresh

6h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

100% of non-arb traders are on Olimpia Milano. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 60% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpOlimpia Milano 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrOlimpia Milano 100% · 4

Aligned

Hand-pickedOlimpia Milano 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Olimpia Milano 100% · 7

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Olimpia Milano wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance54.7%

52.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$82.67

Max Loss

-$100.00

182.7

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.