Real Madrid vs. KK Crvena Zvezda

7 of 10 top Polymarket traders hold Real Madrid (70%) · Real Madrid at 100¢ · $4K held · ended Nov 12

Real Madrid>99¢KK Crvena Zvezda<1¢Ended Thu, Nov 12, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Real Madrid

Consensus Traders

Real Madrid 70%

Total Value

$3.7K

Combined PnL

$349.98

Smart Money Entry

68.3¢ → 100¢

+46% since entry · 7 traders

Research grade

AvoidReal Madrid at 100%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Real Madrid

7 of 10 top traders (70%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

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Outcome Probabilities

Real Madrid100%

KK Crvena Zvezda0%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Real Madrid7 traders

Total Value$3.7K

Total Shares4,197

Combined PnL+$358.59

KK Crvena Zvezda3 traders

Total Value$0.06

Total Shares122

Combined PnL-$8.61

Real Madrid — 70%KK Crvena Zvezda — 30%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Fading

-19 pts consensus

Breadth

6 traders

Top 2 hold 73%

Freshness

Fresh

1h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

67% of non-arb traders are on Real Madrid. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 73% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrReal Madrid 50% · 4

Aligned

Hand-pickedReal Madrid 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Real Madrid 63% · 8

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
VeryLucky888	Real Madridavg 67.1¢	$1.6K	$1.9K	+$300.26	52% 816-742 (1558)
HO HomeRunHazard	Real Madridavg 68¢	$531.35	$640.75	+$109.4	57% 3458-2629 (6087)
NO NotJump	Real Madridavg 51.5¢	$545.91	$523.69	+$7.72	54% 503-420 (923)
FL Flaznorp	Real Madridavg 85.1¢	$389	$408.06	+$19.05	51% 2643-2567 (5210)
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghigh	Real Madridavg 92.2¢	$231.16	$142.3	-$88.86	51% 2096-2033 (4129)
CI cigarettes<$100	Real Madridavg 88.8¢	$68.82	$77.46	+$8.64	53% 6255-5540 (11795)
0X 0x8g68hBa8tyH1946Bhjb674g3fuyUIGYUi4uhflks<$100	Real Madridavg 68¢	$11.56	$13.94	+$2.38	55% 211-170 (381)
MO mouzsynapseCTR<$100	KK Crvena Zvezdaavg 6.8¢	$7.3	$0.05	-$7.24	40% 69-102 (171)
FE ferdinand2CTR<$100	KK Crvena Zvezdaavg 7.3¢	$0.61	$0	-$0.61	49% 1313-1344 (2657)
poshposhCTR<$100	KK Crvena Zvezdaavg 12¢	$0.76	$0	-$0.76	48% 591-648 (1239)

VeryLucky888

Real Madrid

Invested

$1,594.21

Value

$1.9K

PnL

+$300.26

Record

52%

816-742 (1558)

HomeRunHazard

Real Madrid

Invested

$531.35

Value

$640.75

PnL

+$109.4

Record

57%

3458-2629 (6087)

NotJump

Real Madrid

Invested

$545.91

Value

$523.69

PnL

+$7.72

Record

54%

503-420 (923)

Flaznorp

Real Madrid

Invested

$389

Value

$408.06

PnL

+$19.05

Record

51%

2643-2567 (5210)

keeptheblueflagflyinghigh

Real Madrid

Invested

$231.16

Value

$142.3

PnL

-$88.86

Record

51%

2096-2033 (4129)

cigarettes<$100

Real Madrid

Invested

$68.82

Value

$77.46

PnL

+$8.64

Record

53%

6255-5540 (11795)

0x8g68hBa8tyH1946Bhjb674g3fuyUIGYUi4uhflks<$100

Real Madrid

Invested

$11.56

Value

$13.94

PnL

+$2.38

Record

55%

211-170 (381)

mouzsynapseCTR<$100

KK Crvena Zvezda

Invested

$7.3

Value

$0.05

PnL

-$7.24

Record

40%

69-102 (171)

ferdinand2CTR<$100

KK Crvena Zvezda

Invested

$0.61

Value

PnL

-$0.61

Record

49%

1313-1344 (2657)

poshposhCTR<$100

KK Crvena Zvezda

Invested

$0.76

Value

PnL

-$0.76

Record

48%

591-648 (1239)

Research grade

AvoidReal Madrid at 100%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

Smart Money Signal

Real Madrid

7 of 10 top traders (70%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Fading

-19 pts consensus

Breadth

6 traders

Top 2 hold 73%

Freshness

Fresh

1h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

67% of non-arb traders are on Real Madrid. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 73% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrReal Madrid 50% · 4

Aligned

Hand-pickedReal Madrid 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Real Madrid 63% · 8

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Real Madrid wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.9%

100.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.10

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.