Virtus Bologna vs. BC Dubai

3 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold BC Dubai (38%) · BC Dubai at 64¢ · $21K held · ends Nov 6

Virtus Bologna37¢BC Dubai63¢Ends Fri, Nov 6, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

BC Dubai

Consensus Traders

BC Dubai 38%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$21.1K

Combined PnL

$225.43

Smart Money Entry

60.2¢ → 63.5¢

+6% since entry · 3 traders

Research grade

AvoidBC Dubai at 64%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

BC Dubai

3 of 8 top traders (38%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed5 hold an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Virtus Bologna37%

BC Dubai64%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

BC Dubai3 traders

Total Value$17.5K

Total Shares27,325

Combined PnL+$310.72

Virtus Bologna5 traders

Total Value$1.3K

Total Shares3,521

Combined PnL-$85.29

BC Dubai — 38%Virtus Bologna — 62%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+5 pts consensus

Breadth

3 traders

Top 2 hold 97%

Freshness

Fresh

2h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

38% of non-arb traders are on BC Dubai. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 97% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrVirtus Bologna 63% · 8

Diverging

Hand-pickedVirtus Bologna 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000Virtus Bologna 57% · 7

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
DR dribblingbanana69	BC Dubaiavg 60¢	$12.6K	$13.5K	+$105.14	49% 320-337 (657)
JI jizzbucket57	BC Dubaiavg 60¢	$3.3K	$3.5K	+$219.11	49% 1129-1173 (2302)
FL FlaznorpARB<$100	Virtus Bolognaavg 40¢	$2.5K	$2.3K	-$131.2	51% 25751-24453 (50204)
└ Virtus Bologna leg	Virtus Bolognaavg 40¢	$1.6K	$1.4K	-$156.93
└ BC Dubai leg	BC Dubaiavg 62.2¢	$903.57	$929.29	+$25.73
VeryLucky888CTR	Virtus Bolognaavg 36¢	$524.33	$524.33	+$0	58% 46694-33653 (80347)
VI vibing123	BC Dubaiavg 65.2¢	$533.59	$520.07	-$13.53	51% 1627-1537 (3164)
SE sentrioCTR	Virtus Bolognaavg 39¢	$341.77	$315.48	-$26.29	50% 25823-25522 (51345)
BA BayupatiCTR	Virtus Bolognaavg 41.2¢	$281.81	$246.24	-$35.57	49% 259-272 (531)
GT gt7238CTR	Virtus Bolognaavg 41.2¢	$183.34	$160.2	-$23.14	45% 656-817 (1473)
RollAwayTheDewCTR<$100	Virtus Bolognaavg 41.2¢	$21.54	$21.24	-$0.3	54% 520-445 (965)

dribblingbanana69

BC Dubai

Invested

$12,617.07

Value

$13.5K

PnL

+$105.14

Record

49%

320-337 (657)

jizzbucket57

BC Dubai

Invested

$3,286.61

Value

$3.5K

PnL

+$219.11

Record

49%

1129-1173 (2302)

FlaznorpARB<$100

Virtus Bologna

Invested

$2,472.85

Value

$2.3K

PnL

-$131.2

Record

51%

25751-24453 (50204)

Both legs:

Virtus Bologna$1,569.2840¢-$156.93

BC Dubai$903.5762.2¢+$25.73

VeryLucky888CTR

Virtus Bologna

Invested

$524.33

Value

$524.33

PnL

+$0

Record

58%

46694-33653 (80347)

vibing123

BC Dubai

Invested

$533.59

Value

$520.07

PnL

-$13.53

Record

51%

1627-1537 (3164)

sentrioCTR

Virtus Bologna

Invested

$341.77

Value

$315.48

PnL

-$26.29

Record

50%

25823-25522 (51345)

BayupatiCTR

Virtus Bologna

Invested

$281.81

Value

$246.24

PnL

-$35.57

Record

49%

259-272 (531)

gt7238CTR

Virtus Bologna

Invested

$183.34

Value

$160.2

PnL

-$23.14

Record

45%

656-817 (1473)

RollAwayTheDewCTR<$100

Virtus Bologna

Invested

$21.54

Value

$21.24

PnL

-$0.3

Record

54%

520-445 (965)

Research grade

AvoidBC Dubai at 64%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

BC Dubai

3 of 8 top traders (38%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed5 hold an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+5 pts consensus

Breadth

3 traders

Top 2 hold 97%

Freshness

Fresh

2h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

38% of non-arb traders are on BC Dubai. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 97% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrVirtus Bologna 63% · 8

Diverging

Hand-pickedVirtus Bologna 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000Virtus Bologna 57% · 7

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that BC Dubai wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance65.6%

63.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$52.33

Max Loss

-$100.00

152.3

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.