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1 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold No (13%) · No at 98¢ · $2K held · ends Jul 1, 2027

Yes2¢No98¢Ends Thu, Jul 1, 2027View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 13%

Total Value

$2.0K

Combined PnL

$185.53

Research grade

NeutralNo at 98%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

1 of 8 top traders (13%)7 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes2%

No98%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No1 trader

Total Value$2.0K

Total Shares2,027

Combined PnL+$279.09

Yes7 traders

Total Value$13.66

Total Shares618

Combined PnL-$93.56

No — 13%Yes — 87%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

1 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Fresh

4h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

13% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

Top 1000Yes 88% · 8

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0x831449c4b94607dd3367023c61525aea99a90b88-1792449496754	Noavg 84.3¢	$1.7K	$2.0K	+$279.09	— 4-15 (19)
HaradwaithCTR<$100	Yesavg 14¢	$37.85	$6	-$31.85	50% 23-23 (46)
WA WarriorHCTR<$100	Yesavg 17¢	$18.19	$2.35	-$15.84	4% 1-24 (25)
SP SPLPBCTR<$100	Yesavg 14¢	$12.46	$1.96	-$10.5	23% 511-1693 (2204)
XT xtxpleasecallmeCTR<$100	Yesavg 17.2¢	$12.32	$1.57	-$10.75	41% 3090-4455 (7545)
0X 0x9495d622aB74a6O1AD1668D3DD4F7A2E68C3468FCTR<$100	Yesavg 15¢	$6	$0.88	-$5.12	— 1-18 (19)
SU SulkingCryptoCTR<$100	Yesavg 16¢	$3.36	$0.46	-$2.9	15% 3-17 (20)
HoshinoAICTR<$100	Yesavg 14.8¢	$38.05	$0.44	-$16.61	48% 10-11 (21)

0x831449c4b94607dd3367023c61525aea99a90b88-1792449496754

Invested

$1,728.75

Value

$2.0K

PnL

+$279.09

Record

—

4-15 (19)

HaradwaithCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$37.85

Value

PnL

-$31.85

Record

50%

23-23 (46)

WarriorHCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$18.19

Value

$2.35

PnL

-$15.84

Record

1-24 (25)

SPLPBCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$12.46

Value

$1.96

PnL

-$10.5

Record

23%

511-1693 (2204)

xtxpleasecallmeCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$12.32

Value

$1.57

PnL

-$10.75

Record

41%

3090-4455 (7545)

0x9495d622aB74a6O1AD1668D3DD4F7A2E68C3468FCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

Value

$0.88

PnL

-$5.12

Record

—

1-18 (19)

SulkingCryptoCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$3.36

Value

$0.46

PnL

-$2.9

Record

15%

3-17 (20)

HoshinoAICTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$38.05

Value

$0.44

PnL

-$16.61

Record

48%

10-11 (21)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 98%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

1 of 8 top traders (13%)7 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

1 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Fresh

4h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

13% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

Top 1000Yes 88% · 8

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.0%

98.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$1.01

Max Loss

-$100.00

101.0

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.