EU adopts Chinese telecom gear phase-out law by December 31, 2028?
2 of 2 top Polymarket traders hold No (100%) · No at 57¢ · $535 held · ends Jan 1, 2029
⚖️
Neutral
No
2
No 100%
3 arb excluded
$535.41
-$22.64
61¢ → 57.5¢
-6% since entry · 2 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 57%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
2 of 2 top traders (100%)3 arbitrage traders dimmed1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
2 traders
Top 2 hold 100%
Freshness
Fresh
2h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
100% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 0xdc3E831cad | Noavg 61¢ | $333.32 | $311.47 | -$21.86 | 0% 0-52 (52) |
WA WarriorHARB<$100 | Noavg 62¢ | $79.79 | $79 | -$0.79 | 4% 1-24 (25) |
| └ No leg | Noavg 62¢ | $48.98 | $45.03 | -$3.95 | |
| └ Yes leg | Yesavg 39¢ | $30.81 | $33.97 | +$3.16 | |
XT xtxpleasecallmeARB<$100 | Noavg 54.4¢ | $67.2 | $73.74 | +$6.54 | 41% 3090-4455 (7545) |
| └ No leg | Noavg 54.4¢ | $47.14 | $49.78 | +$2.64 | |
| └ Yes leg | Yesavg 35.6¢ | $20.06 | $23.96 | +$3.9 | |
 HoshinoAIARB<$100 | Yesavg 42.4¢ | $112.08 | $56.38 | -$7.61 | 48% 10-11 (21) |
| └ Yes leg | Yesavg 42.4¢ | $29.99 | $30.05 | -$5.19 | |
| └ No leg | Noavg 59.8¢ | $27.39 | $26.33 | -$2.43 | |
0X 0x9495d622aB74a6O1AD1668D3DD4F7A2E68C3468F<$100 | Noavg 60¢ | $15.6 | $14.82 | -$0.78 | — 1-18 (19) |
0xdc3E831cadInvested
$333.32
Value
$311.47
PnL
-$21.86
Record
0%
0-52 (52)
Invested
$79.79
Value
$79
PnL
-$0.79
Record
4%
1-24 (25)
Both legs:
Invested
$67.2
Value
$73.74
PnL
+$6.54
Record
41%
3090-4455 (7545)
Both legs:
HoshinoAIARB<$100Invested
$112.08
Value
$56.38
PnL
-$7.61
Record
48%
10-11 (21)
Both legs:
Invested
$15.6
Value
$14.82
PnL
-$0.78
Record
—
1-18 (19)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
57.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.