EU adopts Chinese telecom gear phase-out law by December 31, 2027?
4 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold No (80%) · No at 86¢ · $2K held · ends Jan 1, 2028
⚖️
Neutral
No
5
No 80%
$2.2K
$131.75
84.4¢ → 86¢
+2% since entry · 4 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 86%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
4 of 5 top traders (80%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
0X 0x831449c4b94607dd3367023c61525aea99a90b88-1792449496754 | Noavg 85.6¢ | $1.3K | $1.4K | +$67.48 | — 4-15 (19) |
 0xdc3E831cad | Noavg 79¢ | $291.45 | $332.03 | +$40.58 | 0% 0-52 (52) |
XT xtxpleasecallme | Noavg 83.1¢ | $308.07 | $327.76 | +$19.69 | 41% 3119-4481 (7600) |
 ArmageddonRewardsBilly | Noavg 88¢ | $176 | $180 | +$4 | 48% 1228-1315 (2543) |
SU SulkingCryptoCTR<$100 | Yesavg 16¢ | $20.96 | $20.96 | +$0 | 10% 3-26 (29) |
Invested
$1,298.22
Value
$1.4K
PnL
+$67.48
Record
—
4-15 (19)
0xdc3E831cadInvested
$291.45
Value
$332.03
PnL
+$40.58
Record
0%
0-52 (52)
Invested
$308.07
Value
$327.76
PnL
+$19.69
Record
41%
3119-4481 (7600)
ArmageddonRewardsBillyInvested
$176
Value
$180
PnL
+$4
Record
48%
1228-1315 (2543)
Invested
$20.96
Value
$20.96
PnL
+$0
Record
10%
3-26 (29)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
86.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.6¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.