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Consensus Lost ✗
Smart money consensus was Up — but Down won instead.
Ethereum Up or Down on November 8?
Resolved Down. 50% of the top Polymarket traders held Up. The smart money was wrong.
RESOLVED
💀
Lost
Consensus Traders
6
Up 50%
Total Value
$399.06
Combined PnL
$-3.9K
Smart Money Signal
Up
3 of 6 top traders (50%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)
Market Activity
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Outcome Probabilities
Up0%
Down100%
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Up3 traders
Total Value$0
Total Shares5,192
Combined PnL$-4.2K
Down3 traders
Total Value$399.06
Total Shares399
Combined PnL+$360.69
Up — 50%Down — 50%
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
0X 0x06dc51826bc524d9a83770e7de9dd7e005b0452CTR | Upavg 89.7¢ | $4.0K | — | $-4.0K | 69% 5021-2239 (7260) |
19 196874353278CTR | Upavg 52¢ | $2.4K | — | -$186.68 | 40% 466-700 (1166) |
AN Anon455CTR<$100 | Upavg 80.2¢ | $67.29 | — | -$67.29 | 55% 3933-3280 (7213) |
BO bosona | Downavg 9.7¢ | $14.05 | $145.1 | +$131.05 | 55% 52063-42542 (94605) |
MO mo-money | Downavg 9.6¢ | $14.68 | $152.65 | +$137.96 | 55% 52829-43280 (96109) |
AL almach | Downavg 9.5¢ | $9.64 | $101.32 | +$91.67 | 55% 50494-42140 (92634) |
0X
0x06dc51826bc524d9a83770e7de9dd7e005b0452CTRInvested
$3,961.6
Value
—
PnL
$-4.0K
Record
69%
5021-2239 (7260)
19
196874353278CTRInvested
$2,415.37
Value
—
PnL
-$186.68
Record
40%
466-700 (1166)
AN
Anon455CTR<$100Invested
$67.29
Value
—
PnL
-$67.29
Record
55%
3933-3280 (7213)
BO
bosonaInvested
$14.05
Value
$145.1
PnL
+$131.05
Record
55%
52063-42542 (94605)
MO
mo-moneyInvested
$14.68
Value
$152.65
PnL
+$137.96
Record
55%
52829-43280 (96109)
AL
almachInvested
$9.64
Value
$101.32
PnL
+$91.67
Record
55%
50494-42140 (92634)
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Market Info
Condition ID
0x4358a5b6...29e849
Slug
ethereum-up-or-down-on-november-8-2026