Ethereum Up or Down on November 6?
4 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold Down (80%) · Down at 86¢ · $11K held · ends Nov 6
⚖️
Neutral
Down
5
Down 80%
$11.4K
$3.5K
53.3¢ → 85.5¢
+60% since entry · 4 traders
Research grade
NeutralDown at 86%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
4 of 5 top traders (80%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
0X 0x06dc51826bc524d9a83770e7de9dd7e005b0452 | Downavg 53.2¢ | $6.9K | $10.7K | +$3.8K | 65% 3070-1637 (4707) |
19 196874353278CTR | Upavg 37.6¢ | $787.06 | $234.7 | -$337.79 | 40% 344-511 (855) |
AL almach | Downavg 63.8¢ | $172.76 | $199.66 | +$10.92 | 55% 49975-41536 (91511) |
BO bosona | Downavg 45¢ | $18.35 | $178.28 | +$13.69 | 55% 51578-41988 (93566) |
AN Anon455<$100 | Downavg 75.5¢ | $52.96 | $50.48 | -$2.48 | 55% 3413-2844 (6257) |
Invested
$6,912.7
Value
$10.7K
PnL
+$3.8K
Record
65%
3070-1637 (4707)
Invested
$787.06
Value
$234.7
PnL
-$337.79
Record
40%
344-511 (855)
Invested
$172.76
Value
$199.66
PnL
+$10.92
Record
55%
49975-41536 (91511)
Invested
$18.35
Value
$178.28
PnL
+$13.69
Record
55%
51578-41988 (93566)
Invested
$52.96
Value
$50.48
PnL
-$2.48
Record
55%
3413-2844 (6257)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
85.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.8¢ fee (Crypto 7%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.