Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,500 on November 2?
5 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold No (100%) · No at 99¢ · $29K held · ends Nov 2
⚖️
Neutral
No
5
No 100%
$29.1K
$268.04
97¢ → 99.1¢
+2% since entry · 5 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 99%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
5 of 5 top traders (100%)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
SH Sharky6999 | Noavg 97.1¢ | $13.7K | $13.9K | +$143.7 | 98% 6928-168 (7096) |
0X 0x06dc51826bc524d9a83770e7de9dd7e005b0452 | Noavg 96.1¢ | $9.3K | $9.5K | +$190.93 | 66% 2464-1295 (3759) |
0X 0xb6fef4c2c436ab8bbf07d017952e851dcf717394 | Noavg 98.6¢ | $3.6K | $3.5K | -$115.72 | 59% 1078-751 (1829) |
0X 0xDB5 | Noavg 97.6¢ | $2.5K | $2.1K | +$48.05 | 59% 2253-1577 (3830) |
 cryingbabydicer87 | Noavg 97¢ | $109.07 | $110.14 | +$1.08 | 45% 4814-5806 (10620) |
Invested
$13,737.44
Value
$13.9K
PnL
+$143.7
Record
98%
6928-168 (7096)
Invested
$9,306.67
Value
$9.5K
PnL
+$190.93
Record
66%
2464-1295 (3759)
Invested
$3,611.96
Value
$3.5K
PnL
-$115.72
Record
59%
1078-751 (1829)
Invested
$2,460.98
Value
$2.1K
PnL
+$48.05
Record
59%
2253-1577 (3830)
cryingbabydicer87Invested
$109.07
Value
$110.14
PnL
+$1.08
Record
45%
4814-5806 (10620)
Chat
EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
99.1¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Crypto 7%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.