Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,500 on October 30?
3 of 4 top Polymarket traders hold No (75%) · No at 98¢ · $14K held · ends Oct 30
⚖️
Neutral
No
4
No 75%
$14.4K
$740.56
93.4¢ → 98.3¢
+5% since entry · 3 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 98%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
- Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 4 top traders (75%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
0X 0x06dc51826bc524d9a83770e7de9dd7e005b0452 | Noavg 93.1¢ | $11.6K | $11.4K | +$619.08 | 65% 2367-1271 (3638) |
0X 0xb6fef4c2c436ab8bbf07d017952e851dcf717394 | Noavg 94.3¢ | $2.9K | $2.8K | +$117.44 | 60% 1038-705 (1743) |
GO gobblewobble | Noavg 94.3¢ | $125.93 | $122.9 | +$4.05 | 59% 860-598 (1458) |
0X 0xDB5CTR<$100 | Yesavg 1.3¢ | $7.22 | $7.22 | +$0 | 59% 2174-1531 (3705) |
Invested
$11,602.35
Value
$11.4K
PnL
+$619.08
Record
65%
2367-1271 (3638)
Invested
$2,860.88
Value
$2.8K
PnL
+$117.44
Record
60%
1038-705 (1743)
Invested
$125.93
Value
$122.9
PnL
+$4.05
Record
59%
860-598 (1458)
Invested
$7.22
Value
$7.22
PnL
+$0
Record
59%
2174-1531 (3705)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
98.3¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Crypto 7%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.