Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,200 on November 11?
6 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold No (100%) · No at 99¢ · $8K held · ends Nov 11
⚖️
Neutral
No
6
No 100%
$8.1K
$90.73
97.7¢ → 98.8¢
+1% since entry · 6 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 99%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
6 of 6 top traders (100%)3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
6 traders
Top 2 hold 94%
Freshness
Fresh
0h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
100% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 94% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
0X 0x06dc51826bc524d9a83770e7de9dd7e005b0452 | Noavg 97.7¢ | $7.0K | $7.1K | +$83.4 | 65% 60-33 (93) |
XT xtxpleasecallme | Noavg 97.7¢ | $586.2 | $593.4 | +$7.2 | 41% 3108-4463 (7571) |
NO nonkenny90 | Noavg 98.9¢ | $395.6 | $395.6 | -$0 | — 6-0 (6) |
 balthazar<$100 | Noavg 98.9¢ | $28.78 | $28.78 | +$0 | 51% 4634-4520 (9154) |
EA Eager47259<$100 | Noavg 98.3¢ | $19.66 | $19.78 | +$0.12 | 41% 49-70 (119) |
0X 0x39AaEd185b92e99a78249610cc14A589B764583C-1759470981616<$100 | Noavg 98.7¢ | $16.32 | $16.33 | +$0.01 | — 8-9 (17) |
Invested
$6,982.46
Value
$7.1K
PnL
+$83.4
Record
65%
60-33 (93)
Invested
$586.2
Value
$593.4
PnL
+$7.2
Record
41%
3108-4463 (7571)
Invested
$395.6
Value
$395.6
PnL
-$0
Record
—
6-0 (6)
balthazar<$100Invested
$28.78
Value
$28.78
PnL
+$0
Record
51%
4634-4520 (9154)
Invested
$19.66
Value
$19.78
PnL
+$0.12
Record
41%
49-70 (119)
Invested
$16.32
Value
$16.33
PnL
+$0.01
Record
—
8-9 (17)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
98.8¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Crypto 7%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.