Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,100 on November 1?
4 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (67%) · Yes at 99¢ · $15K held · ends Nov 1
⚖️
Neutral
Yes
6
Yes 67%
$14.9K
$268.42
96.6¢ → 99.1¢
+3% since entry · 4 traders
Research grade
NeutralYes at 99%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
4 of 6 top traders (67%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
4 traders
Top 2 hold 93%
Freshness
Fresh
0h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
67% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 93% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
0X 0x06dc51826bc524d9a83770e7de9dd7e005b0452 | Yesavg 96.2¢ | $21.6K | $11.4K | +$338.58 | 66% 2457-1291 (3748) |
0X 0xb6fef4c2c436ab8bbf07d017952e851dcf717394 | Yesavg 97.5¢ | $3.1K | $2.4K | -$3.31 | 59% 1064-740 (1804) |
0X 0xDB5 | Yesavg 98.7¢ | $902.67 | $882.07 | -$20.6 | 59% 2237-1570 (3807) |
SH Sharky6999 | Yesavg 97.2¢ | $194.45 | $198 | +$3.55 | 98% 6905-166 (7071) |
19 196874353278CTR<$100 | Noavg 3¢ | $48.46 | $24.16 | -$44.48 | 45% 211-263 (474) |
GO gobblewobbleCTR<$100 | Noavg 3.8¢ | $5.7 | $2.27 | -$5.32 | 59% 877-611 (1488) |
Invested
$21,562.01
Value
$11.4K
PnL
+$338.58
Record
66%
2457-1291 (3748)
Invested
$3,056.51
Value
$2.4K
PnL
-$3.31
Record
59%
1064-740 (1804)
Invested
$902.67
Value
$882.07
PnL
-$20.6
Record
59%
2237-1570 (3807)
Invested
$194.45
Value
$198
PnL
+$3.55
Record
98%
6905-166 (7071)
Invested
$48.46
Value
$24.16
PnL
-$44.48
Record
45%
211-263 (474)
Invested
$5.7
Value
$2.27
PnL
-$5.32
Record
59%
877-611 (1488)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
99.1¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Crypto 7%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.