Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,100 on October 31?
3 of 4 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (75%) · Yes at 97¢ · $13K held · ends Oct 31
⚖️
Neutral
Yes
4
Yes 75%
1 arb excluded
$13.0K
$276.59
96¢ → 97.3¢
+1% since entry · 3 traders
Research grade
NeutralYes at 97%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 4 top traders (75%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed1 holds an outcome priced under 50%
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
0X 0x06dc51826bc524d9a83770e7de9dd7e005b0452 | Yesavg 96.1¢ | $12.2K | $12.3K | +$126.21 | 65% 2397-1278 (3675) |
0X 0xb6fef4c2c436ab8bbf07d017952e851dcf717394ARB<$100 | Noavg 4.5¢ | $1.2K | $241.3 | -$57.37 | 59% 1047-717 (1764) |
| └ Yes leg | Yesavg 94.6¢ | $153.53 | $158.59 | +$22.6 | |
| └ No leg | Noavg 4.5¢ | $163.96 | $82.71 | -$79.98 | |
0X 0xDB5 | Yesavg 95¢ | $239.4 | $234.36 | -$5.04 | 59% 2192-1542 (3734) |
GO gobblewobble | Yesavg 96.7¢ | $132.3 | $128.85 | -$3.44 | 59% 862-600 (1462) |
19 196874353278CTR | Noavg 2.7¢ | $686.11 | $62.59 | +$158.85 | 43% 170-221 (391) |
Invested
$12,215.13
Value
$12.3K
PnL
+$126.21
Record
65%
2397-1278 (3675)
Invested
$1,162.31
Value
$241.3
PnL
-$57.37
Record
59%
1047-717 (1764)
Both legs:
Invested
$239.4
Value
$234.36
PnL
-$5.04
Record
59%
2192-1542 (3734)
Invested
$132.3
Value
$128.85
PnL
-$3.44
Record
59%
862-600 (1462)
Invested
$686.11
Value
$62.59
PnL
+$158.85
Record
43%
170-221 (391)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
97.3¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Crypto 7%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.