Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,000 on November 1?
4 of 4 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (100%) · Yes at 100¢ · $12K held · ends Nov 1
⚖️
Neutral
Yes
4
Yes 100%
$11.9K
$142.52
97.9¢ → 99.8¢
+2% since entry · 4 traders
Research grade
NeutralYes at 100%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
- Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
4 of 4 top traders (100%)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
0X 0x06dc51826bc524d9a83770e7de9dd7e005b0452 | Yesavg 97.7¢ | $10.2K | $10.1K | +$189.67 | 66% 2457-1291 (3748) |
0X 0xb6fef4c2c436ab8bbf07d017952e851dcf717394 | Yesavg 99.5¢ | $1.5K | $1.4K | -$52.83 | 59% 1064-740 (1804) |
 Facaie | Yesavg 98.7¢ | $179.63 | $181.64 | +$1.55 | 93% 1311-105 (1416) |
KI kingofcoinflips | Yesavg 96.7¢ | $127.18 | $131.25 | +$4.14 | 54% 394-334 (728) |
Invested
$10,177.26
Value
$10.1K
PnL
+$189.67
Record
66%
2457-1291 (3748)
Invested
$1,481.38
Value
$1.4K
PnL
-$52.83
Record
59%
1064-740 (1804)
FacaieInvested
$179.63
Value
$181.64
PnL
+$1.55
Record
93%
1311-105 (1416)
Invested
$127.18
Value
$131.25
PnL
+$4.14
Record
54%
394-334 (728)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
99.8¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Crypto 7%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.