Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,000 on October 30?
4 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (80%) · Yes at 100¢ · $9K held · ends Oct 30
⚖️
Neutral
Yes
5
Yes 80%
$9.0K
$10.49
98.2¢ → 99.6¢
+1% since entry · 4 traders
Research grade
NeutralYes at 100%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
- Quality net +3 or moreNot confirmed. Oct 22 backtest: net +3 when the consensus formed made +7.2 % a trade (n 358), with 5 events giving two thirds of it. Full year, out of sample, the closest rule (3+ proven winners, two thirds on the side) lost −1.9 % a trade (n 49,161, 95 % CI −2.6 to −1.1).
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
4 of 5 top traders (80%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
4 traders
Top 2 hold 92%
Freshness
Fresh
0h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
80% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 92% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
0X 0x06dc51826bc524d9a83770e7de9dd7e005b0452 | Yesavg 98.1¢ | $7.2K | $7.3K | +$26.1 | 65% 2384-1276 (3660) |
 Facaie | Yesavg 98.6¢ | $896.73 | $904.9 | +$8.27 | 92% 1234-104 (1338) |
0X 0xDB5 | Yesavg 97.8¢ | $460.11 | $458.53 | -$3.18 | 59% 2181-1535 (3716) |
0X 0xb6fef4c2c436ab8bbf07d017952e851dcf717394 | Yesavg 99.4¢ | $1.4K | $311.29 | -$22.9 | 60% 1043-709 (1752) |
19 196874353278CTR<$100 | Noavg 0.7¢ | $9.99 | $12.19 | +$2.2 | 31% 20-44 (64) |
Invested
$7,249.04
Value
$7.3K
PnL
+$26.1
Record
65%
2384-1276 (3660)
FacaieInvested
$896.73
Value
$904.9
PnL
+$8.27
Record
92%
1234-104 (1338)
Invested
$460.11
Value
$458.53
PnL
-$3.18
Record
59%
2181-1535 (3716)
Invested
$1,407.74
Value
$311.29
PnL
-$22.9
Record
60%
1043-709 (1752)
Invested
$9.99
Value
$12.19
PnL
+$2.2
Record
31%
20-44 (64)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
99.6¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Crypto 7%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.