Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold No, while the market favors Yes (91%). 1 of 4 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,900 on November 7?
1 of 4 top Polymarket traders hold No (25%) · No at 9.5¢ · $9K held · ended Nov 7
⚠️
Avoid
No
4
No 25%
$9.1K
$-14.4K
Research grade
AvoidNo at 9%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.
- Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
1 of 4 top traders (25%)Underdog side (market favors Yes 91%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
0X 0x06dc51826bc524d9a83770e7de9dd7e005b0452 | Yesavg 95.8¢ | $8.6K | $9.1K | +$435.28 | 65% 3106-1654 (4760) |
0X 0xb6fef4c2c436ab8bbf07d017952e851dcf717394CTR | Noavg 99¢ | $15.0K | $7.5 | $-14.8K | 60% 1466-967 (2433) |
NO nonkenny90<$100 | Yesavg 99.7¢ | $5 | $5 | +$0.01 | 90% 5045-574 (5619) |
 cryingbabydicer87<$100 | Yesavg 98.9¢ | $3.99 | $4.05 | +$0.06 | 49% 10705-11356 (22061) |
Invested
$8,646.7
Value
$9.1K
PnL
+$435.28
Record
65%
3106-1654 (4760)
Invested
$15,000
Value
$7.5
PnL
$-14.8K
Record
60%
1466-967 (2433)
Invested
$5
Value
$5
PnL
+$0.01
Record
90%
5045-574 (5619)
cryingbabydicer87<$100Invested
$3.99
Value
$4.05
PnL
+$0.06
Record
49%
10705-11356 (22061)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
9.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.7¢ fee (Crypto 7%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.