Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,900 on November 4?
4 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (67%) · Yes at 100¢ · $8K held · ends Nov 4
⚖️
Neutral
Yes
6
Yes 67%
$7.8K
$80.67
97.3¢ → 100¢
+3% since entry · 4 traders
Research grade
NeutralYes at 100%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
4 of 6 top traders (67%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
3 traders
Top 2 hold 100%
Freshness
Fresh
7h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
60% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
0X 0x06dc51826bc524d9a83770e7de9dd7e005b0452 | Yesavg 97.1¢ | $7.1K | $7.3K | +$195.14 | 65% 2792-1480 (4272) |
SH Sharky6999 | Yesavg 99.4¢ | $298.2 | $299.25 | +$1.05 | 98% 7057-174 (7231) |
0X 0xb6fef4c2c436ab8bbf07d017952e851dcf717394CTR | Noavg 3.4¢ | $216.76 | $99.42 | -$115.48 | 60% 1228-826 (2054) |
0X 0xDB5<$100 | Yesavg 98.6¢ | $60.42 | $61.16 | +$0.74 | 60% 2505-1689 (4194) |
 cryingbabydicer87<$100 | Yesavg 99.4¢ | $39.89 | $40.02 | +$0.12 | 48% 9790-10702 (20492) |
19 196874353278CTR<$100 | Noavg 0.8¢ | $1.16 | $0.28 | -$0.9 | 39% 285-448 (733) |
Invested
$7,135.86
Value
$7.3K
PnL
+$195.14
Record
65%
2792-1480 (4272)
Invested
$298.2
Value
$299.25
PnL
+$1.05
Record
98%
7057-174 (7231)
Invested
$216.76
Value
$99.42
PnL
-$115.48
Record
60%
1228-826 (2054)
Invested
$60.42
Value
$61.16
PnL
+$0.74
Record
60%
2505-1689 (4194)
cryingbabydicer87<$100Invested
$39.89
Value
$40.02
PnL
+$0.12
Record
48%
9790-10702 (20492)
Invested
$1.16
Value
$0.28
PnL
-$0.9
Record
39%
285-448 (733)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
100.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Crypto 7%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.