Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,900 on November 15?

4 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold No (44%) · No at 90¢ · $1K held · ends Nov 15

Yes10¢No90¢Ends Sun, Nov 15, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 44%

Total Value

$1.1K

Combined PnL

-$553.86

Smart Money Entry

78.8¢ → 89.8¢

+14% since entry · 4 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 90%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

4 of 9 top traders (44%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes10%

No90%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No4 traders

Total Value$873.55

Total Shares971

Combined PnL-$163.05

Yes5 traders

Total Value$229.42

Total Shares1,463

Combined PnL-$390.81

No — 44%Yes — 56%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
SU suntori	Noavg 85.6¢	$593.56	$626.67	+$33.11	46% 2702-3200 (5902)
EA Eager47259	Noavg 89.3¢	$2.8K	$127.16	$-2.2K	50% 197-198 (395)
TO TokorCTR	Yesavg 68.3¢	$512.37	$120	-$392.37	53% 131-115 (246)
0X 0x06dc51826bc524d9a83770e7de9dd7e005b0452	Noavg 35.2¢	$2.3K	$114.9	+$2.0K	68% 182-84 (266)
XT xtxpleasecallmeCTR<$100	Yesavg 14.6¢	$87.6	$85.5	-$2.1	39% 3661-5820 (9481)
cryingbabydicer87CTR<$100	Yesavg 14.4¢	$49.38	$9.78	+$14.41	49% 1497-1559 (3056)
BU Burkilota1CTR<$100	Yesavg 27.4¢	$12.9	$7.54	-$5.36	65% 184-99 (283)
0X 0x90d4B0aA65D33FEFC7F978688A803260A5A82DeE-1775326496677CTR<$100	Yesavg 29.1¢	$12	$6.6	-$5.4	64% 18-10 (28)
HO Hourglass<$100	Noavg 41.6¢	$2.47	$4.82	+$2.35	— 10-4 (14)

suntori

Invested

$593.56

Value

$626.67

PnL

+$33.11

Record

46%

2702-3200 (5902)

Eager47259

Invested

$2,816.69

Value

$127.16

PnL

$-2.2K

Record

50%

197-198 (395)

TokorCTR

Yes

Invested

$512.37

Value

$120

PnL

-$392.37

Record

53%

131-115 (246)

0x06dc51826bc524d9a83770e7de9dd7e005b0452

Invested

$2,342.78

Value

$114.9

PnL

+$2.0K

Record

68%

182-84 (266)

xtxpleasecallmeCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$87.6

Value

$85.5

PnL

-$2.1

Record

39%

3661-5820 (9481)

cryingbabydicer87CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$49.38

Value

$9.78

PnL

+$14.41

Record

49%

1497-1559 (3056)

Burkilota1CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$12.9

Value

$7.54

PnL

-$5.36

Record

65%

184-99 (283)

0x90d4B0aA65D33FEFC7F978688A803260A5A82DeE-1775326496677CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$12

Value

$6.6

PnL

-$5.4

Record

64%

18-10 (28)

Hourglass<$100

Invested

$2.47

Value

$4.82

PnL

+$2.35

Record

—

10-4 (14)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 90%

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

4 of 9 top traders (44%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance91.4%

89.8¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.6¢ fee (Crypto 7%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$9.43

Max Loss

-$100.00

109.4

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.