Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (59%). 7 of 11 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,900 on November 14?

7 of 11 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (64%) · Yes at 41¢ · $4K held · ends Nov 14

Yes41¢No59¢Ends Sat, Nov 14, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 64%

Total Value

$4.1K

Combined PnL

$4.1K

Smart Money Entry

78.3¢ → 40.9¢

-48% since entry · 7 traders

Research grade

NeutralYes at 41%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

7 of 11 top traders (64%)Underdog side (market favors No 59%)7 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes41%

No59%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes7 traders

Total Value$3.0K

Total Shares6,146

Combined PnL-$762.25

No4 traders

Total Value$1.1K

Total Shares1,835

Combined PnL+$4.9K

Yes — 64%No — 36%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+21 pts consensus

Breadth

7 traders

Top 2 hold 81%

Freshness

Fresh

10h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

64% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 81% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpYes 67% · 3

Aligned

ctrYes 83% · 6

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 64% · 11

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
EA Eager47259CTR	Yesavg 79.1¢	$10.4K	$2.1K	$-1.0K	50% 182-185 (367)
0X 0x06dc51826bc524d9a83770e7de9dd7e005b0452	Noavg 29.8¢	$5.2K	$1.0K	+$4.8K	69% 174-79 (253)
NO NotJumpCTR	Yesavg 85.7¢	$534.02	$334.77	+$110.13	53% 750-672 (1422)
0X 0xDB5CTR	Yesavg 82.1¢	$533.25	$321.79	+$179.02	73% 119-45 (164)
TO TokorCTR	Yesavg 70.5¢	$695.36	$197.31	-$83.48	53% 125-112 (237)
XT xtxpleasecallme<$100	Noavg 11.6¢	$9.55	$50.02	+$40.47	39% 3600-5658 (9258)
0X 0x39AaEd185b92e99a78249610cc14A589B764583C-1759470981616<$100	Noavg 38.1¢	$20.29	$28.37	+$12.22	58% 34-25 (59)
E4 e46m3<$100	Noavg 65¢	$12.37	$11.61	-$0.76	42% 2627-3655 (6282)
BU Burkilota1CTR<$100	Yesavg 36.8¢	$41.51	$8.48	+$22.01	65% 184-97 (281)
0X 0x90d4B0aA65D33FEFC7F978688A803260A5A82DeE-1775326496677CTR<$100	Yesavg 36.8¢	$30.91	$6.36	+$15.97	64% 16-9 (25)
cryingbabydicer87CTR<$100	Yesavg 82.5¢	$84.3	$3.03	+$2.12	48% 1324-1417 (2741)

Eager47259CTR

Yes

Invested

$10,365.15

Value

$2.1K

PnL

$-1.0K

Record

50%

182-185 (367)

0x06dc51826bc524d9a83770e7de9dd7e005b0452

Invested

$5,246.2

Value

$1.0K

PnL

+$4.8K

Record

69%

174-79 (253)

NotJumpCTR

Yes

Invested

$534.02

Value

$334.77

PnL

+$110.13

Record

53%

750-672 (1422)

0xDB5CTR

Yes

Invested

$533.25

Value

$321.79

PnL

+$179.02

Record

73%

119-45 (164)

TokorCTR

Yes

Invested

$695.36

Value

$197.31

PnL

-$83.48

Record

53%

125-112 (237)

xtxpleasecallme<$100

Invested

$9.55

Value

$50.02

PnL

+$40.47

Record

39%

3600-5658 (9258)

0x39AaEd185b92e99a78249610cc14A589B764583C-1759470981616<$100

Invested

$20.29

Value

$28.37

PnL

+$12.22

Record

58%

34-25 (59)

e46m3<$100

Invested

$12.37

Value

$11.61

PnL

-$0.76

Record

42%

2627-3655 (6282)

Burkilota1CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$41.51

Value

$8.48

PnL

+$22.01

Record

65%

184-97 (281)

0x90d4B0aA65D33FEFC7F978688A803260A5A82DeE-1775326496677CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$30.91

Value

$6.36

PnL

+$15.97

Record

64%

16-9 (25)

cryingbabydicer87CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$84.3

Value

$3.03

PnL

+$2.12

Record

48%

1324-1417 (2741)

Research grade

NeutralYes at 41%

Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

7 of 11 top traders (64%)Underdog side (market favors No 59%)7 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+21 pts consensus

Breadth

7 traders

Top 2 hold 81%

Freshness

Fresh

10h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

64% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 81% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpYes 67% · 3

Aligned

ctrYes 83% · 6

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 64% · 11

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance43.6%

40.9¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.7¢ fee (Crypto 7%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$129.34

Max Loss

-$100.00

229.3

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.