Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold No, while the market favors Yes (100%). 1 of 5 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,800 on November 4?
1 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold No (20%) · No at 0.4¢ · $12K held · ends Nov 4
⚠️
Avoid
No
5
No 20%
$12.2K
$27.29
Research grade
AvoidNo at 0%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.
- Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
1 of 5 top traders (20%)Underdog side (market favors Yes 100%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
1 traders
Top 2 hold 100%
Freshness
Fresh
4h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
20% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
ZI zimmer888 | Yesavg 1¢ | $100 | $10.0K | +$9.9K | — 6-0 (6) |
0X 0x06dc51826bc524d9a83770e7de9dd7e005b0452 | Yesavg 98.4¢ | $2.1K | $2.1K | +$27.07 | 65% 2695-1422 (4117) |
 Facaie<$100 | Yesavg 99.5¢ | $79.56 | $79.72 | +$0.2 | 93% 1398-106 (1504) |
0X 0xb6fef4c2c436ab8bbf07d017952e851dcf717394CTR | Noavg 99¢ | $10.0K | $35 | $-9.9K | 60% 1195-809 (2004) |
 cryingbabydicer87<$100 | Yesavg 99.2¢ | $5.4 | $5.38 | +$0.03 | 48% 9497-10406 (19903) |
Invested
$100
Value
$10.0K
PnL
+$9.9K
Record
—
6-0 (6)
Invested
$2,112.5
Value
$2.1K
PnL
+$27.07
Record
65%
2695-1422 (4117)
Facaie<$100Invested
$79.56
Value
$79.72
PnL
+$0.2
Record
93%
1398-106 (1504)
Invested
$10,000
Value
$35
PnL
$-9.9K
Record
60%
1195-809 (2004)
cryingbabydicer87<$100Invested
$5.4
Value
$5.38
PnL
+$0.03
Record
48%
9497-10406 (19903)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
0.4¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Crypto 7%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.