Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,800 on November 15?

5 of 12 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (42%) · Yes at 77¢ · $6K held · ends Nov 15

Yes77¢No23¢Ends Sun, Nov 15, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 42%

Total Value

$5.7K

Combined PnL

-$677.3

Smart Money Entry

67.6¢ → 77.3¢

+14% since entry · 5 traders

Research grade

NeutralYes at 77%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

5 of 12 top traders (42%)7 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes77%

No23%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes5 traders

Total Value$4.1K

Total Shares5,307

Combined PnL+$475.74

No7 traders

Total Value$1.5K

Total Shares7,275

Combined PnL$-1.2K

Yes — 42%No — 58%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Cooling

-5 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 96%

Freshness

Mature

28h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

45% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 96% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpYes 67% · 3

Aligned

ctrNo 60% · 5

Diverging

Top 1000No 55% · 11

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
EA Eager47259	Yesavg 66.5¢	$3.0K	$3.3K	+$410.54	50% 197-198 (395)
TI timetowanderCTR	Noavg 1.7¢	$68.75	$849.87	+$781.12	45% 359-445 (804)
TO Tokor	Yesavg 71¢	$577.02	$642.89	+$65.87	53% 131-115 (246)
0X 0x06dc51826bc524d9a83770e7de9dd7e005b0452CTR	Noavg 34.1¢	$9.2K	$474.97	$-1.9K	68% 182-84 (266)
KI kingofcoinflipsCTR	Noavg 19.7¢	$163.85	$174.47	+$10.62	57% 12-9 (21)
0X 0xDB5	Yesavg 79.1¢	$127.35	$127.27	-$0.08	71% 122-49 (171)
cryingbabydicer87	Yesavg 73.9¢	$123.97	$27.86	+$0.61	49% 1497-1559 (3056)
PH PhongLeXBTCTR<$100	Noavg 22.5¢	$13.65	$13.73	+$0.08	25% 7-21 (28)
XT xtxpleasecallmeCTR<$100	Noavg 34¢	$13.04	$8.03	-$5.01	39% 3661-5820 (9481)
HO Hourglass<$100	Yesavg 96.1¢	$6.93	$5.74	-$1.2	— 10-4 (14)
0X 0x5e83c9db1593a9113fffa791797cf9655b383bb7CTR<$100	Noavg 21.7¢	$3.98	$4.16	+$0.18	21% 57-219 (276)
BU Burkilota1CTR<$100	Noavg 21¢	$2.32	$2.32	-$0.01	65% 184-99 (283)

Eager47259

Yes

Invested

$2,972.8

Value

$3.3K

PnL

+$410.54

Record

50%

197-198 (395)

timetowanderCTR

Invested

$68.75

Value

$849.87

PnL

+$781.12

Record

45%

359-445 (804)

Tokor

Yes

Invested

$577.02

Value

$642.89

PnL

+$65.87

Record

53%

131-115 (246)

0x06dc51826bc524d9a83770e7de9dd7e005b0452CTR

Invested

$9,191.34

Value

$474.97

PnL

$-1.9K

Record

68%

182-84 (266)

kingofcoinflipsCTR

Invested

$163.85

Value

$174.47

PnL

+$10.62

Record

57%

12-9 (21)

0xDB5

Yes

Invested

$127.35

Value

$127.27

PnL

-$0.08

Record

71%

122-49 (171)

cryingbabydicer87

Yes

Invested

$123.97

Value

$27.86

PnL

+$0.61

Record

49%

1497-1559 (3056)

PhongLeXBTCTR<$100

Invested

$13.65

Value

$13.73

PnL

+$0.08

Record

25%

7-21 (28)

xtxpleasecallmeCTR<$100

Invested

$13.04

Value

$8.03

PnL

-$5.01

Record

39%

3661-5820 (9481)

Hourglass<$100

Yes

Invested

$6.93

Value

$5.74

PnL

-$1.2

Record

—

10-4 (14)

0x5e83c9db1593a9113fffa791797cf9655b383bb7CTR<$100

Invested

$3.98

Value

$4.16

PnL

+$0.18

Record

21%

57-219 (276)

Burkilota1CTR<$100

Invested

$2.32

Value

$2.32

PnL

-$0.01

Record

65%

184-99 (283)

Research grade

NeutralYes at 77%

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

5 of 12 top traders (42%)7 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Cooling

-5 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 96%

Freshness

Mature

28h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

45% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 96% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpYes 67% · 3

Aligned

ctrNo 60% · 5

Diverging

Top 1000No 55% · 11

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance79.4%

77.3¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Crypto 7%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$25.88

Max Loss

-$100.00

125.9

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.