Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,700 on November 15?

7 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (78%) · Yes at 87¢ · $11K held · ends Nov 15

Yes87¢No13¢Ends Sun, Nov 15, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 78%

Total Value

$11.1K

Combined PnL

-$918.03

Smart Money Entry

95¢ → 87.4¢

-8% since entry · 7 traders

Research grade

NeutralYes at 87%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

7 of 9 top traders (78%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes87%

No13%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes7 traders

Total Value$10.9K

Total Shares12,290

Combined PnL-$973.53

No2 traders

Total Value$198.5

Total Shares4,600

Combined PnL+$55.5

Yes — 78%No — 22%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

6 traders

Top 2 hold 93%

Freshness

Fresh

6h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

75% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 93% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpYes 100% · 2

Aligned

ctrNo 50% · 4

Diverging

Top 1000Yes 75% · 8

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0x06dc51826bc524d9a83770e7de9dd7e005b0452	Yesavg 97.5¢	$9.1K	$7.9K	$-1.2K	69% 206-92 (298)
EA Eager47259	Yesavg 86.2¢	$1.7K	$1.7K	+$184.16	48% 204-219 (423)
TO Tokor	Yesavg 87.9¢	$768.51	$785.59	+$17.08	52% 135-126 (261)
HaileyWelch	Yesavg 91.4¢	$351.48	$310.05	+$19.58	— 8-2 (10)
0X 0xDB5	Yesavg 94¢	$302.94	$155.26	+$3.5	72% 137-54 (191)
TI timetowanderCTR	Noavg 1.4¢	$56	$104	+$48	45% 360-446 (806)
XT xtxpleasecallmeCTR<$100	Noavg 14.5¢	$87	$94.5	+$7.5	39% 3701-5905 (9606)
cryingbabydicer87	Yesavg 95.6¢	$248.29	$32.1	-$1.41	49% 1545-1582 (3127)
SU suntori<$100	Yesavg 88¢	$11.51	$12.58	+$1.07	46% 2814-3341 (6155)

0x06dc51826bc524d9a83770e7de9dd7e005b0452

Yes

Invested

$9,131.19

Value

$7.9K

PnL

$-1.2K

Record

69%

206-92 (298)

Eager47259

Yes

Invested

$1,688.77

Value

$1.7K

PnL

+$184.16

Record

48%

204-219 (423)

Tokor

Yes

Invested

$768.51

Value

$785.59

PnL

+$17.08

Record

52%

135-126 (261)

HaileyWelch

Yes

Invested

$351.48

Value

$310.05

PnL

+$19.58

Record

—

8-2 (10)

0xDB5

Yes

Invested

$302.94

Value

$155.26

PnL

+$3.5

Record

72%

137-54 (191)

timetowanderCTR

Invested

$56

Value

$104

PnL

+$48

Record

45%

360-446 (806)

xtxpleasecallmeCTR<$100

Invested

$87

Value

$94.5

PnL

+$7.5

Record

39%

3701-5905 (9606)

cryingbabydicer87

Yes

Invested

$248.29

Value

$32.1

PnL

-$1.41

Record

49%

1545-1582 (3127)

suntori<$100

Yes

Invested

$11.51

Value

$12.58

PnL

+$1.07

Record

46%

2814-3341 (6155)

Research grade

NeutralYes at 87%

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

7 of 9 top traders (78%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

6 traders

Top 2 hold 93%

Freshness

Fresh

6h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

75% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 93% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpYes 100% · 2

Aligned

ctrNo 50% · 4

Diverging

Top 1000Yes 75% · 8

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance89.1%

87.4¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.7¢ fee (Crypto 7%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$12.21

Max Loss

-$100.00

112.2

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.