Ethereum Up or Down - November 7, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET
10 of 10 top Polymarket traders hold Down (100%) · Down at 100¢ · $601 held · ended Nov 7
⚖️
Neutral
Down
10
Down 100%
$601.1
$15.26
89.3¢ → 100¢
+12% since entry · 10 traders
Research grade
NeutralDown at 100%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
10 of 10 top traders (100%)8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 pspspsps5 | Downavg 93.1¢ | $286.43 | $306.28 | +$19.85 | 45% 40240-48232 (88472) |
PL ply-pm2 | Downavg 87.5¢ | $169.73 | $165.43 | -$4.29 | 51% 10690-10141 (20831) |
 MayorMamdani<$100 | Downavg 98.2¢ | $54.99 | $55.97 | +$0.98 | 55% 51661-42835 (94496) |
AS asdcaxz<$100 | Downavg 88¢ | $26.33 | $20.02 | -$6.31 | 48% 6746-7394 (14140) |
0X 0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518<$100 | Downavg 50¢ | $12 | $17.64 | +$5.64 | 58% 39867-28830 (68697) |
 G-Penis-Monster<$100 | Downavg 82.1¢ | $16.42 | $14.7 | -$1.72 | 61% 46204-29379 (75583) |
 OhioRiskManagement<$100 | Downavg 91.5¢ | $9.18 | $9.77 | +$0.6 | 49% 81117-84565 (165682) |
AS asdaefef<$100 | Downavg 80.2¢ | $4.21 | $3.86 | -$0.35 | 66% 130798-67676 (198474) |
DR drfc4eybh7i8<$100 | Downavg 53.7¢ | $2.74 | $3.75 | +$1.01 | 65% 130470-70278 (200748) |
 ohioism<$100 | Downavg 76.3¢ | $3.82 | $3.68 | -$0.14 | 63% 42543-25276 (67819) |
pspspsps5Invested
$286.43
Value
$306.28
PnL
+$19.85
Record
45%
40240-48232 (88472)
Invested
$169.73
Value
$165.43
PnL
-$4.29
Record
51%
10690-10141 (20831)
MayorMamdani<$100Invested
$54.99
Value
$55.97
PnL
+$0.98
Record
55%
51661-42835 (94496)
Invested
$26.33
Value
$20.02
PnL
-$6.31
Record
48%
6746-7394 (14140)
Invested
$12
Value
$17.64
PnL
+$5.64
Record
58%
39867-28830 (68697)
G-Penis-Monster<$100Invested
$16.42
Value
$14.7
PnL
-$1.72
Record
61%
46204-29379 (75583)
OhioRiskManagement<$100Invested
$9.18
Value
$9.77
PnL
+$0.6
Record
49%
81117-84565 (165682)
Invested
$4.21
Value
$3.86
PnL
-$0.35
Record
66%
130798-67676 (198474)
Invested
$2.74
Value
$3.75
PnL
+$1.01
Record
65%
130470-70278 (200748)
ohioism<$100Invested
$3.82
Value
$3.68
PnL
-$0.14
Record
63%
42543-25276 (67819)
Chat
EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
100.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Crypto 7%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.
Market Info
Traders in this Market
pspspsps5
Down — $306.28
ply-pm2
Down — $165.43
MayorMamdani
Down — $55.97
asdcaxz
Down — $20.02
0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518
Down — $17.64
G-Penis-Monster
Down — $14.7
OhioRiskManagement
Down — $9.77
asdaefef
Down — $3.86
drfc4eybh7i8
Down — $3.75
ohioism
Down — $3.68