Consensus Lost ✗
Smart money consensus was Up — but Down won instead.
Ethereum Up or Down - November 7, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET
Resolved Down. 86% of the top Polymarket traders held Up. The smart money was wrong.
💀
Lost
7
Up 86%
1 arb excluded
$118.31
-$472.91
Smart Money Signal
6 of 7 top traders (86%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed6 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
PL ply-pm2CTR | Upavg 40.8¢ | $158.88 | — | -$158.88 | 51% 10642-10092 (20734) |
 pspspsps5CTR | Upavg 64.8¢ | $122.68 | — | -$122.68 | 45% 40219-48185 (88404) |
AS asdcaxzARB<$100 | Upavg 51.2¢ | $116.95 | $104.17 | -$12.78 | 48% 6714-7364 (14078) |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 51.2¢ | $86.06 | — | -$86.06 | |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 29.7¢ | $30.89 | $104.17 | +$73.28 | |
BL blue.birdsCTR<$100 | Upavg 69.4¢ | $83.89 | — | -$83.89 | 51% 12215-11708 (23923) |
 MayorMamdaniCTR<$100 | Upavg 64.6¢ | $59.76 | — | -$59.76 | 55% 51661-42835 (94496) |
 OhioRiskManagementCTR<$100 | Upavg 53.8¢ | $27.63 | — | -$27.63 | 49% 81096-84540 (165636) |
DR drfc4eybh7i8<$100 | Downavg 98.1¢ | $18.2 | $14.14 | -$4.06 | 65% 130448-70263 (200711) |
AS asdaefefCTR<$100 | Upavg 83¢ | $16.01 | — | -$16.01 | 66% 130591-67529 (198120) |
Invested
$158.88
Value
—
PnL
-$158.88
Record
51%
10642-10092 (20734)
pspspsps5CTRInvested
$122.68
Value
—
PnL
-$122.68
Record
45%
40219-48185 (88404)
Invested
$116.95
Value
$104.17
PnL
-$12.78
Record
48%
6714-7364 (14078)
Both legs:
Invested
$83.89
Value
—
PnL
-$83.89
Record
51%
12215-11708 (23923)
MayorMamdaniCTR<$100Invested
$59.76
Value
—
PnL
-$59.76
Record
55%
51661-42835 (94496)
OhioRiskManagementCTR<$100Invested
$27.63
Value
—
PnL
-$27.63
Record
49%
81096-84540 (165636)
Invested
$18.2
Value
$14.14
PnL
-$4.06
Record
65%
130448-70263 (200711)
Invested
$16.01
Value
—
PnL
-$16.01
Record
66%
130591-67529 (198120)