Database problems: some data is degraded. We're fixing it right now.

Back to Markets

Consensus Lost ✗

Smart money consensus was Down — but Up won instead.

Ethereum Up or Down - November 7, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET

Resolved Up. 63% of the top Polymarket traders held Down. The smart money was wrong.

View on Polymarket

RESOLVED

💀

Lost

Consensus Traders

8

Down 63%

3 arb excluded

Total Value

$331.78

Combined PnL

-$174.4

Smart Money Signal

Down

5 of 8 top traders (63%)3 arbitrage traders dimmed5 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Up100%

Down0%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Down5 traders

Total Value$0

Total Shares268

Combined PnL-$183.94

Up3 traders

Total Value$40.3

Total Shares40

Combined PnL+$9.53

Down — 63%Up — 37%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
pspspsps5ARB<$100	Upavg 62.2¢	$176.16	$145.16	-$31	45% 40219-48185 (88404)
└ Up leg	Upavg 62.2¢	$90.24	$145.16	+$54.92
└ Down leg	Downavg 50.2¢	$85.93	—	-$85.93
AS asdcaxzARB<$100	Upavg 56.8¢	$104.69	$110.2	+$5.51	48% 6714-7364 (14078)
└ Up leg	Upavg 56.8¢	$62.63	$110.2	+$47.57
└ Down leg	Downavg 28.7¢	$42.06	—	-$42.06
PL ply-pm2CTR<$100	Downavg 30.6¢	$81.8	—	-$81.8	51% 10642-10092 (20734)
MayorMamdaniARB<$100	Downavg 29.7¢	$40.11	$36.13	-$3.98	55% 51661-42835 (94496)
└ Up leg	Upavg 52.4¢	$18.93	$36.13	+$17.19
└ Down leg	Downavg 29.7¢	$21.17	—	-$21.17
BL blue.birdsCTR<$100	Downavg 50.4¢	$55.07	—	-$55.07	51% 12215-11708 (23923)
OhioRiskManagementCTR<$100	Downavg 48.8¢	$33.05	—	-$33.05	49% 81096-84540 (165636)
ohioism<$100	Upavg 48¢	$18	$20	+$2	63% 42522-25264 (67786)
0X 0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518<$100	Upavg 63¢	$8.82	$14	+$5.18	58% 39839-28824 (68663)
G-Penis-MonsterCTR<$100	Downavg 34.5¢	$6.91	—	-$6.91	61% 46186-29359 (75545)
DR drfc4eybh7i8CTR<$100	Downavg 37.6¢	$7.1	—	-$7.1	65% 130448-70263 (200711)
AS asdaefef<$100	Upavg 62.7¢	$3.94	$6.3	+$2.35	66% 130591-67529 (198120)

pspspsps5ARB<$100

Invested

$176.16

Value

$145.16

PnL

-$31

Record

45%

40219-48185 (88404)

Both legs:

Up$90.2462.2¢+$54.92

Down$85.9350.2¢-$85.93

asdcaxzARB<$100

Invested

$104.69

Value

$110.2

PnL

+$5.51

Record

48%

6714-7364 (14078)

Both legs:

Up$62.6356.8¢+$47.57

Down$42.0628.7¢-$42.06

ply-pm2CTR<$100

Invested

$81.8

Value

—

PnL

-$81.8

Record

51%

10642-10092 (20734)

MayorMamdaniARB<$100

Invested

$40.11

Value

$36.13

PnL

-$3.98

Record

55%

51661-42835 (94496)

Both legs:

Up$18.9352.4¢+$17.19

Down$21.1729.7¢-$21.17

blue.birdsCTR<$100

Invested

$55.07

Value

—

PnL

-$55.07

Record

51%

12215-11708 (23923)

OhioRiskManagementCTR<$100

Invested

$33.05

Value

—

PnL

-$33.05

Record

49%

81096-84540 (165636)

Invested

$18

Value

$20

PnL

+$2

Record

63%

42522-25264 (67786)

0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518<$100

Invested

$8.82

Value

$14

PnL

+$5.18

Record

58%

39839-28824 (68663)

G-Penis-MonsterCTR<$100

Invested

$6.91

Value

—

PnL

-$6.91

Record

61%

46186-29359 (75545)

drfc4eybh7i8CTR<$100

Invested

$7.1

Value

—

PnL

-$7.1

Record

65%

130448-70263 (200711)

Invested

$3.94

Value

$6.3

PnL

+$2.35

Record

66%

130591-67529 (198120)

Smart Money Signal

Down

5 of 8 top traders (63%)3 arbitrage traders dimmed5 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

Market Info

Condition ID

0xe8ca3e32...1979d3

Slug

eth-updown-5m-1794039000

Traders in this Market

pspspsps5

Arbitrage — excluded

asdcaxz

Arbitrage — excluded

ply-pm2

Down — $0

MayorMamdani

Arbitrage — excluded

blue.birds

Down — $0

OhioRiskManagement

Down — $0

ohioism

Up — $20

0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518

Up — $14

G-Penis-Monster

Down — $0

drfc4eybh7i8

Down — $0

Trade on Polymarket