Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Down, while the market favors Up (76%). 3 of 3 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.
Ethereum Up or Down - November 4, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET
3 of 3 top Polymarket traders hold Down (100%) · Down at 24¢ · $6 held
⚠️
Avoid
Down
3
Down 100%
$5.97
-$2.55
Research grade
AvoidDown at 24%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.
- Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
- Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 3 top traders (100%)Underdog side (market favors Up 76%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
0X 0x50f7CTR<$100 | Downavg 5¢ | $2.55 | $2.55 | -$2.55 | 59% 63762-44820 (108582) |
 MayorMamdaniCTR<$100 | Downavg 17¢ | $2.04 | $2.04 | +$0 | 55% 51266-42545 (93811) |
 pspspsps5CTR<$100 | Downavg 5¢ | $1.38 | $1.38 | +$0 | 46% 39796-47575 (87371) |
Chat
EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
24.4¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.3¢ fee (Crypto 7%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.