Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Up, while the market favors Down (82%). 2 of 3 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.
Ethereum Up or Down - November 4, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET
2 of 3 top Polymarket traders hold Up (67%) · Up at 18¢ · $52 held
⚠️
Avoid
Up
3
Up 67%
$51.92
$56.57
Research grade
AvoidUp at 18%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.
- Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
- Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
2 of 3 top traders (67%)Underdog side (market favors Down 82%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 MayorMamdani<$100 | Downavg 82¢ | $49.29 | $48.39 | +$58.1 | 55% 51266-42545 (93811) |
 pspspsps5CTR<$100 | Upavg 2.2¢ | $2 | $2 | +$0 | 46% 39796-47575 (87371) |
0X 0x50f7CTR<$100 | Upavg 1.5¢ | $1.53 | $1.53 | -$1.53 | 59% 63762-44820 (108582) |
Chat
EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
18.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.1¢ fee (Crypto 7%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.