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Consensus Won ✓

Smart money consensus was Up — and it was correct. Winning outcome: Up

Ethereum Up or Down - November 4, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET

Resolved Up. 58% of the top Polymarket traders held Up. The smart money was right.

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RESOLVED

🏆

Won

Consensus Traders

12

Up 55%

3 arb excluded

Total Value

$586.09

Combined PnL

-$27.2

Smart Money Signal

Up

7 of 12 top traders (58%)3 arbitrage traders dimmed5 hold an outcome priced under 50%11 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

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Outcome Probabilities

Up100%

Down0%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Up7 traders

Total Value$226.27

Total Shares226

Combined PnL+$6.74

Down5 traders

Total Value$0

Total Shares410

Combined PnL-$33.93

Up — 58%Down — 42%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609ARB<$100	Upavg 67.8¢	$106.68	$139.46	+$32.78	67% 101397-49715 (151112)
└ Down leg	Downavg 7.2¢	$12.12	—	-$12.12
└ Up leg	Upavg 67.8¢	$94.56	$139.46	+$44.9
PL ply-pm2ARB<$100	Upavg 63.8¢	$109.84	$167.04	+$57.2	51% 9592-9177 (18769)
└ Up leg	Upavg 63.8¢	$106.53	$167.04	+$60.51
└ Down leg	Downavg 4.4¢	$3.31	—	-$3.31
HO hoodquant	Upavg 98.9¢	$134.74	$136.27	+$1.53	91% 26779-2517 (29296)
OhioRiskManagementARB<$100	Upavg 89.4¢	$50.79	$53.32	+$2.53	49% 79812-83277 (163089)
└ Down leg	Downavg 2.3¢	$3.1	—	-$3.1
└ Up leg	Upavg 89.4¢	$47.68	$53.32	+$5.64
pspspsps5CTR<$100	Downavg 1¢	$2.68	—	-$2.68	46% 39431-46955 (86386)
AS asidjasiodja<$100	Upavg 91.4¢	$17.76	$15	-$2.76	61% 97755-61856 (159611)
MayorMamdani<$100	Upavg 88.3¢	$35.06	$39.72	+$4.66	55% 50634-42081 (92715)
AS asdaefef<$100	Upavg 80.3¢	$16.05	$18.28	+$2.24	66% 129276-66666 (195942)
UN uninformedflowwCTR<$100	Downavg 18.5¢	$22.54	—	-$22.54	57% 76514-58860 (135374)
0X 0x424eb20Fcd25113e3b98f42522A54580350b263b-1774330621025CTR<$100	Downavg 51.7¢	$8.31	—	-$8.31	58% 62279-45653 (107932)
DV dvasdkasodk<$100	Upavg 95.3¢	$6.54	$5	-$1.54	52% 93062-87484 (180546)
BL blue.birds<$100	Upavg 78.2¢	$9.39	$12	+$2.61	51% 11083-10569 (21652)
Polkadot-FrogCTR<$100	Downavg 7¢	$0.36	—	-$0.36	63% 60059-34551 (94610)
AN antsaslykuCTR<$100	Downavg 1¢	$0.05	—	-$0.05	65% 113900-60785 (174685)
AS asdcaxz<$100	Upavg 86.5¢	—	—	+$0	48% 5573-6007 (11580)

0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609ARB<$100

Invested

$106.68

Value

$139.46

PnL

+$32.78

Record

67%

101397-49715 (151112)

Both legs:

Down$12.127.2¢-$12.12

Up$94.5667.8¢+$44.9

ply-pm2ARB<$100

Invested

$109.84

Value

$167.04

PnL

+$57.2

Record

51%

9592-9177 (18769)

Both legs:

Up$106.5363.8¢+$60.51

Down$3.314.4¢-$3.31

Invested

$134.74

Value

$136.27

PnL

+$1.53

Record

91%

26779-2517 (29296)

OhioRiskManagementARB<$100

Invested

$50.79

Value

$53.32

PnL

+$2.53

Record

49%

79812-83277 (163089)

Both legs:

Down$3.12.3¢-$3.1

Up$47.6889.4¢+$5.64

pspspsps5CTR<$100

Invested

$2.68

Value

—

PnL

-$2.68

Record

46%

39431-46955 (86386)

asidjasiodja<$100

Invested

$17.76

Value

$15

PnL

-$2.76

Record

61%

97755-61856 (159611)

MayorMamdani<$100

Invested

$35.06

Value

$39.72

PnL

+$4.66

Record

55%

50634-42081 (92715)

Invested

$16.05

Value

$18.28

PnL

+$2.24

Record

66%

129276-66666 (195942)

uninformedflowwCTR<$100

Invested

$22.54

Value

—

PnL

-$22.54

Record

57%

76514-58860 (135374)

0x424eb20Fcd25113e3b98f42522A54580350b263b-1774330621025CTR<$100

Invested

$8.31

Value

—

PnL

-$8.31

Record

58%

62279-45653 (107932)

dvasdkasodk<$100

Invested

$6.54

Value

$5

PnL

-$1.54

Record

52%

93062-87484 (180546)

blue.birds<$100

Invested

$9.39

Value

$12

PnL

+$2.61

Record

51%

11083-10569 (21652)

Polkadot-FrogCTR<$100

Invested

$0.36

Value

—

PnL

-$0.36

Record

63%

60059-34551 (94610)

antsaslykuCTR<$100

Invested

$0.05

Value

—

PnL

-$0.05

Record

65%

113900-60785 (174685)

Invested

—

Value

—

PnL

+$0

Record

48%

5573-6007 (11580)

Smart Money Signal

Up

7 of 12 top traders (58%)3 arbitrage traders dimmed5 hold an outcome priced under 50%11 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

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Market Info

Condition ID

0xda5e9b22...8cbd85

Slug

eth-updown-5m-1793810100

Traders in this Market

0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609

Arbitrage — excluded

ply-pm2

Arbitrage — excluded

hoodquant

Up — $136.27

OhioRiskManagement

Arbitrage — excluded

pspspsps5

Down — $0

asidjasiodja

Up — $15

MayorMamdani

Up — $39.72

asdaefef

Up — $18.28

uninformedfloww

Down — $0

0x424eb20Fcd25113e3b98f42522A54580350b263b-1774330621025

Down — $0

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